Max Scherzer's Uncertain Sendoff: Toronto Blue Jays Host Cincinnati Reds
Game 162. Neither team has anything left to play for, and that is precisely why this one is more interesting than the standings suggest.
Max Scherzer takes the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays (78-83) on Sunday afternoon at Rogers Centre against the Cincinnati Reds (75-86), and it may be the last time we see him on a major league mound. He has openly entertained pitching in 2027, telling reporters he wants to "see how things unfold" before deciding on retirement. He has not committed either way. So the subtext — a 40-something right-hander grinding through a 6.14 ERA season, one start from an uncertain winter — is the headline. It is not, however, the reason this game is worth a bet.
The Line Is Quietly Talking
Toronto opened at -178 and has drifted to -168, with Cincinnati moving from +150 to +142. The run line has been nailed at -1.5 all week. The total has not moved off 8.5.
Two things matter there. First, a sub-.500 favorite at nearly -180 rarely shortens this late in a lost season unless there is money coming in on the other side, and the ten-cent move toward Cincinnati is mild but consistent. Second, and more telling: the total is holding at 8.5 despite Cincinnati's starter owning a 5.10 runs-allowed-per-game team profile. Markets that refuse to move totals up in lopsided, meaningless games are usually telling you the number is already right — or that it's one bad inning from busting.
Scherzer vs. Williamson: The Mismatch That Isn't
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | xERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer (R) | 3-9 | 6.14 | 1.36 | 7.07 | 3.94 | 4.35 |
| Brandon Williamson (L) | 5-4 | 4.89 | 1.41 | 5.98 | 4.89 | 5.88 |
The surface numbers say Toronto has the better arm. The underlying numbers say the opposite — and then some.
Start with Scherzer. That 6.14 ERA is doing a lot of misdirection. His expected ERA is 4.35, a gap of nearly 1.8 runs, which is one of the widest unlucky margins you will find in a 77-inning sample. The expected batting average against him is .239 (actual: .241) and expected slugging is .406 (actual: .428). He has not suddenly forgotten how to pitch; he has been punished by batted-ball sequencing and a .330 wOBA-against that outpaces his .320 expected mark.
Where he has genuinely slipped is the slider. In 72 plate appearances ending on the pitch, opponents have hit .299 with a .657 slugging percentage and a .433 wOBA — a -9 run value and -4.0 runs per 100 pitches. The four-seamer, by contrast, has been his carrying pitch: .207 average, .336 slugging, .320 wOBA, +5 run value. If Cincinnati's right-handed bats can lay off the slider out of the zone and hunt the fastball, they can make this uncomfortable. His changeup (.257 expected wOBA) and curveball (.262 expected wOBA, 26.4% whiff) remain viable, which is why the xERA says he is better than the box score.
Now Williamson — and here is the real edge. His 4.89 ERA is worse than his talent in one respect and better in another. His expected ERA of 5.88 is nearly a full run higher than his actual mark, which is the classic profile of a pitcher who has been bailed out by luck. His percentile ranks are brutal: 3rd percentile in xwOBA, 3rd in xERA, 1st in xOBP, 4th in strikeout rate, 2nd in chase rate. He is not missing bats — 5.98 K/9 against 4.89 BB/9 is a 1.22 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is bottom-of-the-barrel.
Dig into the pitch mix and it gets worse. His four-seamer, used 17.3% of the time, has been crushed: .333 average, .792 slugging, .530 wOBA, with an expected wOBA of .556 and a whiff rate of just 10.2%. His sinker is even uglier — .444 average, 1.000 slugging, .581 wOBA across 21 plate appearances. He survives on the cutter (25% put-away rate, .308 expected wOBA) and a sweeper that has been genuinely excellent (42% whiff, 38.7% strikeout rate, .034 average against). The problem is usage: the sweeper accounts for only 11% of his pitches. If he does not lean harder on it, Toronto's bats will see plenty of hittable fastballs.
One more data point worth flagging: Williamson's start log shows a four-month gap between April 29 and September 2. This is not a pitcher who has built a full-season workload, and his 4.89 walks per nine suggests the command has not come back with him.
What Earl's Model Sees
Our model lands on Toronto on the moneyline, Over 8.5, and — most importantly — Cincinnati +1.5 on the run line, with a predicted score of Blue Jays 4.6, Reds 4.1. That is a 0.5-run margin and an 8.69 total, which tells the whole story: the model thinks Toronto wins, but it thinks they win by one.
The reason those picks coexist is the profile of both offenses. Toronto's scoring is modest (3.99 runs per game) but Cincinnati's run prevention is far worse (5.10 allowed per game, a -156 run differential for the season). The model's reasoning is straightforward: Toronto's hitters have been more effective at reaching base and driving runs in at home (41-39 at Rogers Centre), Cincinnati's lineup has underperformed relative to its own standard, and both pitching staffs have command issues that should inflate the run total.
The expected-value read is where subscribers should focus. The model assigns the run line a +10.73 EV — a genuine, actionable edge. The Over carries -3.98 and the moneyline -9.51, meaning those two are directional reads, not value plays at the current price. Cincinnati +1.5 is the bet the model actually wants you to make.
The Late-Inning Angle Nobody Is Pricing
There is a structural case for the +1.5 that has nothing to do with either starter's ERA.
Scherzer has thrown 77.2 innings across 17 starts — under five innings per outing. He is a five-and-dive arm at this stage. Meanwhile, Toronto's injured list is a graveyard of pitching: Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, José Berríos, Jameson Taillon, Patrick Corbin, Yimi García, Bowden Francis, Jake Bloss, and Cody Ponce are all unavailable. That is nine arms.
Cincinnati's bullpen situation is not much better in terms of availability — Hunter Greene, Chase Burns, Tony Santillan, and Julian Garcia are all out — but the Reds are the team getting +1.5. When both clubs are scraping the bottom of the bullpen barrel in the late innings of game 162, the dog getting a run and a half is the side with the structural cushion.
The Play
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-110 or better) is the primary position — the only side where the model shows positive expected value, and the one supported by the pitching regression profile (Williamson's 5.88 xERA as a favorite's opponent is a warning sign, not a comfort). Toronto can absolutely win this game; the model says they will. They just have to win it by two, with a short starter and a depleted bullpen, against a Reds lineup that has been better than its reputation suggests.
If you want a secondary look, the Over 8.5 is defensible on park factors alone — Rogers Centre grades at 102 overall and 104 for home runs — and the model's 8.69 projection sits just on the right side of the number. Just know it comes with a negative EV tag attached at the current price, so treat it as a lean, not a conviction play.
The moneyline at -168 is the pass. Short favorites with a 6.14 ERA in front of them and a bullpen held together with tape are exactly the kind of bets that look obvious and pay poorly.
One last note on Scherzer. The slider has been the problem all year, and if he is pitching for a 2027 contract — or for the memory — expect a heavier dose of the changeup and curveball, the two pitches that have graded out fine. A shorter, craftier outing would actually help the Under. The market isn't pricing that possibility, and neither is the public.