Eight of Ten and a Skenes Reset: Pittsburgh's September Pulse Is Real

The most important thing that happened to the Pirates this week didn't show up in the standings. It showed up in Paul Skenes' pitch count.

After the worst stretch of his major league career — a run that included the Pirates losing seven straight of his starts and a three-day pushback of one outing to buy him extra rest — Skenes took the ball against the Angels and delivered 5 1/3 scoreless innings. It was his first career start against the team he grew up watching, and it was, by WHIP, his cleanest work of the season: 0.312, with just two strikeouts.

That's the tension. The line was excellent; the strikeout total (2) was not. Skenes has fanned 181 hitters in 155 innings this year, a 8.34 K/9, but his recent form shows the whiff rate sliding — 7.42 K/9 over his last five starts. His season line (10-11, 3.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 45 walks) is fine, not Cy Young. His quality-start rate sits at 39.3 percent. Something has been off for months, and the Pirates finally treated it like a physical issue rather than a mechanical blip.

The Team Around Him Finally Showed Up

That matters because the Pirates are, improbably, still playing relevant baseball. At 73-73 through 146 games with a plus-34 run differential, Pittsburgh has matched its pitching (4.09 team ERA, 9.35 K/9) with a competent offense (.255/.334/.404, 163 home runs, 121 stolen bases).

September has been their best month. The club has won six of eight to open the month, part of an 8-2 run across its last ten games, and it just took a series in Chicago behind a 9-3 win on Sept. 8 and a 4-2 win on Sept. 9 — a game that featured benches clearing after an inning-ending double play and warnings issued to both sides. Wednesday's bullpen game, started by Lake Bachar, held up.

The bullpen is the real story inside the story. Mason Montgomery has turned a scoreless streak into a locked-down closer's role, and the relief corps has posted a 9.89 K/9. The catch: a 4.21 season ERA, 13 blown saves, and a 1.366 WHIP — the same leaky unit that sources have pointed to all year as the reason a Skenes slump became a crisis instead of a footnote.

What Has to Hold

The reinforcements are coming slowly. Ryan O'Hearn is on a rehab assignment after his 10-day IL stint, and Kirby Yates and Isaac Mattson both carry 15-day designations with a stated path back. Mitch Keller and Endy Rodríguez are done for the year on the 60-day list, which means the rotation behind Skenes is what it is.

The math is unforgiving. Milwaukee sits at 91-56; the Cubs are 81-66. Pittsburgh's wild-card path runs through the Cardinals (72-75) and Reds (69-77), teams it can bury in head-to-head play. The Pirates' home/road split is a small edge worth noting: they hit .276 and pitch to a 4.47 ERA at home versus .252 and 4.12 on the road, a combination that rewards a favorable late schedule.

Thursday's finale at Rate Field is priced as a near coin flip — both sides listed around -108, with a 7.5 total — which tells you the market sees two evenly matched clubs, not a contender and a doormat. That's an accurate read of where Pittsburgh is.

The blueprint exists. Cincinnati was six games out of a playoff spot as late as Sept. 5 last season. Whether that's enough is the only question left, and it will be answered by whether Skenes' velo and strikeouts come back with the rest.