Texas Is 74-76, a Game Out of First, and Down Seven Pitchers

The Texas Rangers have not named a starting pitcher for Tuesday night's series opener against the Boston Red Sox at Globe Life Field. That's the headline inside the headline, because the Rangers are simultaneously one game out of first place in the American League West and running a rotation held together with tape.

Both things are true. Texas sits at 74-76, one game behind a Houston club that is itself just 75-75. The Mariners are 70-81, the Athletics 61-89, the Angels 57-93. Somebody has to win this division, and the door is standing open for a team with a negative-44 run differential.

The Pitching Problem Is Structural

Per the injury report, the Rangers are carrying nine players on the IL, and seven of them are pitchers: Chris Martin, Jose Corniell, Carter Baumler, Jalen Beeks, Jack Leiter, Cole Winn and Peyton Gray. That is not a bullpen depth issue. That is a roster emergency.

The numbers match the absences. Texas relievers own a 4.93 season ERA and a 1.385 WHIP, with just one save and two blown saves recorded in the current bullpen snapshot. Over the last ten games the staff ERA is 4.94; over the last five it is 5.20. The team's last-20-game WHIP of 1.439 tells you how much traffic this staff has allowed all summer — and the recent stretch hasn't fixed it.

Tuesday's TBD is the logical endpoint. With no announced starter, the Rangers are looking at a bullpen game or an unproven arm against a Red Sox club that is 82-68 and 44-31 on the road.

deGrom Is Holding the Line

The reason the Rangers are still in this race is Jacob deGrom. Over his last five starts he has a 3.52 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and 12.33 strikeouts per nine. On Sept. 10 in Seattle he threw six innings, struck out 12 and allowed zero earned runs — and Texas lost 4-3 anyway. That has been the season in miniature: an ace pitching like an ace, an offense that can't convert.

For the year, deGrom has made 28 starts with a 3.797 ERA, a 3.207 FIP and a 1.051 WHIP. The FIP suggests he's been better than the ERA, and an ace who takes the ball every fifth day is the single most valuable asset a flawed contender can own in September.

The Bats Are Getting Help — and Cooling Off

The good news came off the field. The Rangers have activated Josh Jung and Nathan Eovaldi from the injured list, and MLB.com framed the returns as the club's playoff plot thickening. Jung is hitting .298 with a .363 on-base percentage and an .804 OPS in 94 games, and he's 4-for-9 with a pair of multi-hit games since coming back. Eovaldi, working on seven days' rest, has a 4.44 ERA and a 1.78 walks-per-nine rate across 21 starts — a strike-thrower for a staff that desperately needs innings.

The concern is the lineup around them. Texas is hitting .244 over its last ten and slugging .350 over its last five, with a .661 OPS in that window. Corey Seager's .231 average with 18 homers has been a drag on a lineup that ranked middle-of-the-pack all year at 4.16 runs per game.

What It Means

September has been a wash: 6-6, with 62 runs scored and 62 allowed. The Rangers are getting healthier at the right moment, but the rotation losses have already cost them, and the schedule doesn't ease — Boston is in town fighting for a wild card, and the Astros are only marginally more functional.

The market still sees the Rangers as a long shot, with championship futures quoted anywhere from 25-1 to 75-1 depending on the book — an implied probability in the low single digits. That's a fair read on a team that can't pitch behind its ace.

But in a division where the leader is .500, a healthy Jung, a returning Eovaldi and a deGrom who has found his form are enough to keep October theoretically in play. The Rangers don't need to be good. They need to be better than Houston.