Chase Burns Was the Reds' Only Argument. A Groin Strain Just Ended It.

The Cincinnati Reds got the news this week that, in a season full of bad ones, cut deepest: Chase Burns is done for the year. The 23-year-old right-hander was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right groin strain, retroactive to Sept. 19, ending a rookie season that was the single strongest counterargument to everything else happening around him.

Consider the line: 15-3, a 2.86 ERA, 154.1 innings, 185 strikeouts against 56 walks, a 1.17 WHIP across 29 starts. As a first-time All-Star, Burns did the thing bad teams almost never manage — he gave them an ace, on a rookie deal, at the front of a rotation that otherwise posted a 4.70 team ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.

Now he's watching the final week in street clothes, alongside a 60-day injured list that already includes Hunter Greene, Spencer Steer, Michael Toglia and Blake Dunn. The Reds aren't hiding from what that means. The bullpen—4.03 ERA, 13 blown saves, 18 saves—was already the most reliable part of the pitching staff, and the rotation depth behind Burns was never the reason this team was in games.

The season in one number

Cincinnati sits at 72-84, and the last two weeks have been the ugliest stretch of the year. From Sept. 8 through Sept. 20, the Reds went 3-9 and were outscored 89-34. They were shut out twice, gave up 20 runs in one game and 13 in another, and scored more than six runs exactly once.

The offense is the root of it. A .226 team average and a .692 OPS would be grim in any context; over the last ten games it collapsed to .204 and .590, with a .256 on-base percentage. The Reds have struck out 1,399 times this season while drawing 514 walks — a ratio that makes it very hard to string together the kind of innings that win low-scoring games.

What's actually left

Elly De La Cruz is the reason to watch the final week. He's slashing .388/.464/.694 with seven home runs and a 1.082 OPS over his last 26 games, and his season line — .285, 28 homers, 28 steals, 96 runs — is the best all-around year a Red has posted in some time. He's playing like a player who intends to be the face of whatever comes next.

Sal Stewart is the other piece. The rookie first baseman has 32 homers and 110 RBI in 156 games; that RBI total is roughly 20 percent of the team's entire 559, which is both a compliment to Stewart and an indictment of everyone around him.

The week wasn't only about Burns. The Reds designated TJ Friedl for assignment to make 40-man room for Carson Spiers — a quiet acknowledgment that the outfield is being reset. And president of baseball operations Nick Krall and manager Terry Francona are both expected back, a decision ownership seems comfortable with even as talk radio is not.

What Tuesday looks like

Cincinnati opens a series at Truist Park against a 92-64 Braves team that has weathered its own rotation losses (Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach are both on the 60-day IL). The market lists Atlanta around -184 with the total at 9.5, implying roughly a two-thirds win probability for the home side — a fair reflection of a first-place club against a last-place one.

Brandon Williamson gets the ball for the Reds, and his profile is the Reds' season in miniature: a 5.94 ERA, 5.94 walks per nine, and only seven starts despite being counted on. He hasn't started since Sept. 2.

The Burns injury doesn't change 2027 much — he'll be ready. But it does mean the Reds close a lost season without their best argument on the mound, which is a fitting ending to a year in which the only reliable things were their ace and their shortstop.