Pirates Shut Out Cardinals 2-0 as Jones Dominates

The Pirates beat the Cardinals 2-0 on Tuesday night at PNC Park, and the story was Jared Jones. The right-hander took a perfect-game bid into the sixth inning and finished with seven shutout innings, allowing one hit with nine strikeouts and no walks. St. Louis managed a single hit all night.

Our premium pick. We sold the Pirates on the moneyline, and that side cashed. Pittsburgh's price had been bet up from -148 to -172, and the result validated the move. The premium pick went 1-for-1.

Our model calls. The other two numbers on the card did not cooperate. The run line (Cardinals +1.5) lost, since the Pirates won by two, and the over on 7.5 lost badly in a game that produced two total runs. That is 1-of-3 across the full board.

Our prop plays. This is where the night turned ugly. Alec Burleson over 1.5 total bases went down without a whimper: 0-for-4, zero total bases. Brandon Lowe over 1.5 total bases met the same fate: 0-for-4, zero total bases. Both platoon-bat angles were built on the idea that Jones could be pitched to, and he simply wasn't — nine strikeouts, one hit, no walks. The Jared Jones under 14.50 outs play missed as well; he recorded 21 outs, well past the line, because he was far better than his season profile suggested. Andre Pallante over 15.50 outs did cash: he worked six innings of one-run ball, 18 outs, clearing the number.

Takeaway. When a starter is this locked in, the platoon-bat props on the opposing lineup are dead on arrival, no matter how good the split looks. The moneyline held because it was the one play that didn't require the Cardinals to do anything at the plate. Future cards should weight the starter's recent form more heavily against soft platoon edges — a dominant arm erases the math underneath it.