Brewers Beat Phillies 4-1 as Henderson Outpitches Nola

The Brewers went into Citizens Bank Park and took care of business, beating the Phillies 4-1 behind Brice Turang's six total bases — a homer, two hits, two runs and an RBI — plus a Christian Yelich long ball. Logan Henderson wasn't overpowering, but he was effective: five innings, one earned run, four hits, three strikeouts and three walks. Aaron Nola lasted six, giving up four earned runs on four hits with eight strikeouts, one walk and two homers. Philadelphia's offense never got going, and the Phillies' clincher has to wait.

How our card graded

Moneyline: Brewers to win — HIT. The side we sold came through, and it wasn't particularly close.

Run line: Phillies +1.5 — MISS. Milwaukee won by three, so the cushion never mattered.

Total: Over — MISS. Five combined runs left this under the number.

Logan Henderson over 5.50 strikeouts — MISS. He finished with three, well short of the number. The command wasn't there — three walks against three punchouts — and that's what capped his night.

Aaron Nola over 2.50 earned runs — HIT. Four earned runs cleared the bar at plus money.

Aaron Nola over 4.50 hits allowed — MISS. He allowed just four hits despite the two homers.

William Contreras over 1.50 total bases — MISS. He finished with one total base on a single, adding two RBI.

What it means going forward

Henderson's strikeout prop was the clearest lesson: his elite walk rate usually keeps him deep in games, but when the command wobbles, the punchout ceiling drops fast. The Nola earned-run over landed exactly as the profile suggested, while the hits-allowed number shows how thin that market can be when a starter limits traffic. Expect more of the same discipline on pitcher props down the stretch.