Padres 5, Dodgers 1: San Diego Snaps LA's 11-Game Home Streak

The Padres walked into Chavez Ravine and did what nobody had done in weeks: beat the Dodgers at home. San Diego's 5-1 win Wednesday snapped an 11-game Dodgers home winning streak and pushed the Padres one step closer to a postseason berth. Manny Machado's home run set the tone early, and the bullpen made it stand.

Our premium pick: LAD moneyline — LOSS. We backed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers' home fortress, and the market's read on how tight this would be was wrong in the wrong direction. Yamamoto was fine — 6 innings, 2 earned runs, 5 hits, 4 strikeouts, 1 walk, 1 home run — but fine wasn't enough against a San Diego club playing with urgency. The Padres' +1.5 run line, our model's companion call, cashed comfortably, and the under also hit.

Prop plays:

• Yamamoto under 4.50 hits allowed (+110) — LOSS. He allowed 5 hits, clearing the line.
• Robbie Ray over 2.50 earned runs (-131) — LOSS. Ray lasted just 3.1 innings and allowed only 1 earned run on 7 hits. The walks-and-slugging thesis never materialized.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. over 0.5 runs scored (+121) — WIN. Tatis went 3-for-5 with a run scored. The platoon edge paid off.
• Ty France over 0.5 hits (-178) — WIN. France singled once in four at-bats.

Takeaway: Two of our four props hit, but the headline pick and the Yamamoto hits prop both missed because we leaned too hard on rate stats over recent form. Yamamoto's 5.73 hits-per-nine is real, but San Diego's lineup is hotter than its season splits suggest right now. When a team is fighting for its playoff life in late September, the urgency premium matters — and we underpriced it. Expect us to weight recent team form more heavily in these must-win spots going forward.