Cardinals 5, Pirates 1: STL Run Line, Under Both Cash

The Cardinals beat the Pirates 5-1 at PNC Park on Wednesday, and the game played out close to the way the number suggested: tight on the board, light on runs.

The premium pick

We laid out the case before first pitch. The market had steamed Pittsburgh's moneyline from -112 at the open to -134, and the run line had flipped a full run and a half. Our model disagreed with the size of that move — it projected just a 0.16-run margin, coin-flip territory and exactly where a +1.5 underdog lives. That's why we sold STL +1.5 as the play.

St. Louis won outright, so the run line cashed comfortably. The under hit as well. The Pirates moneyline lost. Two of three on the card, with the one miss coming on the side we flagged as the weakest number on the board.

The props

Matthew Liberatore over 4.50 hits allowed (-140) — the number we called our favorite on the board — cashed. Liberatore went 5.2 innings, one earned run, six hits, six strikeouts, no walks. Six hits clears the 4.50 line, and that's the volume bet working the way it was drawn up.

Takeaway

The run-line read was the right one: when the projected margin is a fraction of a run, the +1.5 side is where the value sits, no matter how loud the public money gets. The Liberatore prop is the other side of that coin — pitcher hit props are volume bets, and volume bets pay when a starter's workload holds even on a night he pitches well.