Yankees 6, Rays 4: Lombard Jr. Completes Comeback, Schlittler's Cy Case
The Rays built a four-run lead and watched it disappear. George Lombard Jr.'s late go-ahead homer capped a 6-4 Yankees comeback at Yankee Stadium, a result that keeps New York's slim AL East hopes breathing and hands Tampa Bay a loss it didn't need.
Our moneyline call on the Yankees: WIN. That part held up, even if the path was uglier than the price suggested.
Our run line on Tampa Bay +1.5: LOSS. The Rays led big and lost by two, so the cushion never mattered.
Our total on the Over: WIN. The 6.5 number cleared comfortably once the Yankees' bats woke up.
On the prop card:
- Cam Schlittler over 6.5 strikeouts: LOSS. He punched out five in just 3.0 innings, finishing with 1 earned run on 3 hits and 2 walks. The K rate was there; the length wasn't.
- Ian Seymour over 1.5 earned runs: LOSS. He blanked New York across 5.0 innings, allowing a single hit with 3 strikeouts and no walks. The home-run profile we targeted never showed.
- Ian Seymour over 3.5 hits allowed: LOSS. One hit. Not close.
- Ben Rice over 0.5 hits: LOSS. A hitless night in three at-bats with a walk and a run scored.
Takeaway: The mound read was right in spirit — Schlittler was excellent and Seymour was better than his ERA — but we leaned too hard on the supporting profiles. A pitcher who misses bats can still exit early, and a homer-prone arm can still spin five clean innings. When the strikeout and damage numbers point in opposite directions, the game script is the variable that decides the card. That's the lesson to carry into the next slate.