The Red Sox Are the Fourth Team Since 1903 to Do This. The Yankees Are Next.

The Boston Red Sox are going to the playoffs, and they got there without winning a game.

Boston's berth was secured via the Braves' sweep of the Astros, capping a week that began with the club dropping two of three in Tampa Bay — including a clincher-clinching loss in which the Sox allowed four runs before recording a single out, per Yahoo Sports. It was, by any measure, an anticlimactic coronation. It was also the finish line of one of the strangest seasons in franchise history.

Per ESPN, Boston is the fourth team in the World Series era (since 1903) to reach the postseason after sitting 14 or more games below .500 at some point in the season. As recently as June, the conversation around this roster was about whether the front office should sell. FanGraphs ran a piece titled "It's Time for the Red Sox To Change Gears," and Over the Monster openly pushed for a 2014-style fire sale. Then came the summer: a 13-game winning streak, Boston's first since 1948, and a 27-wins-in-30-games stretch that MLB.com called "rare air."

That team is not the one arriving at Fenway this week, though.

The September version looks different

Boston enters the final days at 85-73 with a plus-80 run differential — a genuinely good team on the season. The last three weeks complicate that portrait. The Red Sox are 10-10 in September with a minus-5 run differential, scoring 63 runs and allowing 68. Over their last ten games, the offense is hitting .228 with a .285 on-base percentage and a .661 OPS. That's a lineup that has gone quiet at precisely the wrong time.

The splits aren't kind either. Boston owns a .395 winning percentage at home this season, compared to .532 on the road — an oddity for a club that just earned home games to close out the year. Whatever the explanation, Fenway hasn't been the advantage it usually is.

The injury list explains some of it. Ceddanne Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida, and Anthony Seigler all appear as key injuries in this week's power rating, which carries a 0.36-run adjustment for their absences. Rafaela, hitting .284 with 16 home runs and 17 steals, is a real loss in center. Justin Slaten is unlikely to rejoin the club this season due to right elbow inflammation, per ESPN.

The Crochet question hanging over October

The most consequential unknown is Garrett Crochet. He hasn't appeared in a game since April 25 — 152 days ago — and his year-to-date line reflects it: a 6.30 ERA over six starts. But the strikeout rate (11.1 K/9) and the fact that he's back on a mound throwing live batting practice keep the door open. MLB.com framed four big questions around his possible return. FanSided noted his velocity is climbing back toward normal. If he can contribute out of the bullpen rather than as a starter, he changes the shape of a relief corps that posted a 4.07 ERA this season.

Tanner Houck and Johan Oviedo are on similar tracks. The bullpen has otherwise drawn praise for its October setup.

Meanwhile, the power rating has slid from fifth to tenth, with the model's number down 0.54 in a week — a clear cooling signal even as the record says otherwise. Championship futures sit in the +1200 to +2000 range depending on the book, which tells you the market views this as a dangerous-but-flawed entrant rather than a favorite.

A rematch waiting

Boston holds the edge in the season series against New York, 6-4 across ten meetings, though the Yankees outscored them 44-36 and won the two most recent games by a combined 25-3. A wild-card rematch at Yankee Stadium is the likeliest path.

The story of this Red Sox season is already remarkable — a June fire sale that never happened, a summer no one saw coming, and a clinch that arrived by someone else's box score. Whether it becomes something more depends on whether Boston can find the offense that carried it out of a 14-game hole.