The Rays Are 21 Wins Better Than Last Year — and Down Their Ace for the ALDS

The Tampa Bay Rays won the American League East the only way a 98-win team should: by walking into Yankee Stadium and taking it. Drew Rasmussen carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning of the second game of a day-night doubleheader, finishing with 11 strikeouts and one hit allowed over 6 2/3 innings in a 6-1 win that clinched the franchise's fifth division title. Yandy Díaz supplied the offense with a pair of two-run singles. The victory also locked up the AL's No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the ALCS — and it came in the Bronx, in front of the team Tampa Bay chased all season.

The scale of the turnaround is the real story. Tampa Bay finished 77-85 in 2025 with a plus-31 run differential. This year's club went 98-64, scored 736 runs and allowed 650 for a plus-86 differential. Twenty-one more wins, 55 more runs of margin. The offense was balanced rather than explosive — a .260/.329/.404 slash line, 181 home runs, 174 stolen bases — while the pitching staff posted a 3.73 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, with a bullpen that was genuinely dominant at 2.65.

Which is what makes the injury report so uncomfortable.

Shane McClanahan has been ruled out for the Division Series. The left-hander has been on the 15-day injured list since September 4 with forearm tightness and hasn't pitched since September 3; manager Kevin Cash has held the door open for a possible return later in the postseason, but only if Tampa Bay advances. Losing McClanahan costs the Rays a starter who posted a 3.28 ERA and 1.076 WHIP across 24 starts, though his 6.94 strikeouts per nine and .167 quality-start rate suggest he was already pitching a different way than the ace version of himself. The bigger issue is the shape of the staff behind Rasmussen: Garrett Cleavinger and Tyler Wells are both on the 15-day IL with forearm tightness, and Ryan Pepiot, Edwin Uceta, Gavin Lux, Jonathan Heasley and Steven Wilson all sit on the 60-day list. Wells was a key bullpen arm.

The late-season form backs up the concern. Over the Rays' final five games, the staff ERA sat at 5.17 with a 1.475 WHIP, and the team won at just a .400 clip while opponents cleared the total in four of five. The power-rating model used here still places Tampa Bay fifth on a neutral field, but that rating has slid 0.122 in a week and already carries a 0.24 dock specifically for McClanahan, Cleavinger and Wells being unavailable. That's a real, measurable drag on a roster that otherwise earned its way to the top seed.

Two things cut against the pessimism. First, Rasmussen. His season line — 2.77 ERA, 0.904 WHIP, 2.65 FIP, 16-5 over 29 starts — is that of a legitimate No. 1, and he has been better than that lately, with a 1.43 ERA over his last five and a 2.47 mark on the road. Second, the likely Division Series opponent has been a favorable matchup: Tampa Bay went 5-1 against Cleveland this season, outscoring the Guardians 20-8 and sweeping them at Tropicana Field in late July. Cleveland's only win in the series came back in April.

Off the field, the organization got its long-sought ballpark news when the Tampa City Council approved the stadium development deal 4-3 and the Hillsborough County Commission followed at 5-2, clearing public funding for a project valued around $2.3 billion.

The market is treating this as a second-tier contender with a real chance. Championship futures sit in the 750-to-800 range at the major books, implying roughly 11-12 percent — a number that is thinner than the win total alone would suggest, and a fair reflection of a roster that is one rotation spot lighter than it was a month ago. The Rays solved the regular season. Whether they can solve October without McClanahan is the question that decides how this season gets remembered.