Chase Burns Went 15-3 and the Reds Still Lost 87 Games

The Cincinnati Reds closed the 2026 season the way they spent most of it: losing quietly. A 75-87 record, a last-place finish in the NL Central, and a season-ending 1-5 loss on the final day. But the week's most consequential news wasn't the final score. It was the injury list.

Chase Burns, the 23-year-old right-hander who was the singular bright spot in a bleak Cincinnati summer, was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right groin strain, ending his breakout season. The numbers are staggering for a rookie: 15-3 with a 2.86 ERA across 29 starts, 185 strikeouts in 154.1 innings, a 1.17 WHIP, and a first All-Star selection. On a team that finished with a -160 run differential (666 scored, 826 allowed), Burns was the one pitcher who consistently gave the Reds a chance.

That's the uncomfortable part of this story. Burns was excellent, and the team still lost 87 games. The supporting cast simply wasn't there.

The rotation cratered around him

Hunter Greene made just five starts — a 6.83 ERA over 27.2 innings — before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery, his second Tommy John procedure. Reports indicate he's likely to miss all of 2027 as well, which removes the rotation's presumed co-ace for a second consecutive year. Andrew Abbott ate 166 innings but posted a 4.61 ERA at 6-11. Nick Lodolo was worse: 5.04 ERA over 20 starts. As a staff, Cincinnati finished 27th in ERA at 4.71, with a 1.43 WHIP and a 4.18 walks-per-nine rate that consistently put pressure on a bullpen that finished with a 4.03 ERA and 13 blown saves.

Take Burns out of that group and the picture gets genuinely alarming heading into 2027.

The bats weren't much better

Cincinnati hit .227 as a team with a .304 on-base percentage and a .694 OPS. The standout individual seasons were real — Elly De La Cruz slashed .285/.367/.521 with 30 home runs and 29 steals, and rookie Sal Stewart delivered 32 homers and 110 RBI across 159 games — but the lineup around them thinned out badly. TJ Friedl's fall was symbolic: a .172 average and a .510 OPS in 91 games before he was designated for assignment. September underscored the gap, with the club going 10-14 and being outscored by 47 runs over the month.

The bigger question is upstairs

Managerial and front-office accountability has dominated the discourse. Reports suggest Nick Krall is expected to keep his job atop baseball operations, but a coaching shakeup is reportedly looming — a signal that ownership sees the problem as tactical rather than structural. Not everyone agrees. The organization finished with a losing record against NL Central opponents for the fourth time in five years, and the division isn't getting easier: Milwaukee won 103 games, Chicago 89, and Pittsburgh 82. Cincinnati's 75 wins were the fewest in the Central.

What it means for 2027

The Burns injury is minor in the grand scheme — a groin strain, not an elbow — and he should be fully available next spring. But the Reds enter the offseason with six players headed to free agency, a rotation missing Greene for the year, and a lineup that needs at least two credible bats to stop pitchers from working around De La Cruz and Stewart.

Cincinnati has the hardest commodity to find: a 23-year-old ace under club control. What it doesn't have is everything else. The next four months will determine whether 2026 was a bad year or the start of a longer trend.