Paul Skenes' 2026 Was Defined by 1.4 Miles Per Hour
Paul Skenes' 2026 Was Defined by 1.4 Miles Per Hour
Paul Skenes' season ended quietly, and about as well as it could have. On Sept. 24, in his final start of 2026, the Pirates' ace went 6 1/3 innings against the Cardinals, allowed one earned run and struck out eight. The line looked like the pitcher Pittsburgh has been selling since 2024.
The full season didn't. Skenes finished 10-11 with a 3.82 ERA across 32 starts and 174 1/3 innings, striking out 200 and walking 49 for a 1.12 WHIP. Compare that to the bar he set: a 1.96 ERA as a rookie in 2024, then a 1.97 ERA with 216 strikeouts and a 0.95 WHIP over 187 2/3 innings in 2025. Same pitcher, same uniform, roughly double the earned run rate.
The fastball is the whole story
The most telling data point isn't the ERA. It's the radar gun. Skenes' four-seam fastball averaged 96.8 mph in 2026, down from 98.2 mph a year earlier — a 1.4 mph drop on the pitch he throws more than 40 percent of the time. His sinker fell from 97.6 to 96.6. The splitter dipped from 93.7 to 93.2. Only the changeup held firm at 88.7.
Skenes himself pointed at the World Baseball Classic as a factor, telling reporters the tournament "definitely affected the year." That's a reasonable read on a workload question — a compressed spring, high-intensity innings in March, then a full major league season on top. He also pushed back on the framing that 2026 was a failure, and the underlying numbers partly back him up: his xERA sat at 3.30 against that 3.82 actual mark, and he still finished in the 85th percentile in strikeout rate and fastball velocity.
He also made a little history. Per MLB.com, Skenes became the first Pirates starter in 60 years to post consecutive 200-strikeout seasons. A down year for him is still a rotation anchor for almost anyone else.
The bigger picture in Pittsburgh
Context matters here, because the Pirates' season was not purely a Skenes referendum.
Pittsburgh finished 82-80 — the franchise's first season without a losing record since 2018, snapping a streak that had defined the last seven years. The offense was a roller coaster: scorching early, then collapsing to the bottom of the league in the second half, per Yahoo Sports. The bullpen didn't help, posting a 4.21 ERA with 13 blown saves against just 14 converted saves.
And yet September was the team's best month. The Pirates went 15-9, a .625 clip, with a 4.22 ERA over the final five games and a 10.79 K/9 across the last ten. Rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin returned from a 60-day injured list stint — nearly two months lost to a sagittal band injury in his left ring finger — and the lineup got a jolt exactly when the calendar was running out.
What it means going forward
For Pittsburgh, the offseason question isn't whether Skenes is still an ace. It's whether the 1.4 mph is a WBC hangover or the new baseline. If extra rest and a normal winter restore the 98s, the Pirates enter 2027 with a legitimate front-line starter, a healthy Griffin, and a bullpen that has to be better than 13 blown saves.
If the velocity doesn't come back, the margin gets thin fast — because this team won 82 games with a plus-28 run differential, and it did that in a season when its best pitcher was merely very good instead of historically great.
Skenes doesn't think 2026 was a failure. The numbers say he has a point, and a case to prove next spring.