Brewers Edge Padres 4-3 in NLDS Game 2 Thriller

The Milwaukee Brewers beat the San Diego Padres 4-3 on Sunday at American Family Field, and the game lived up to its billing as a pitching-first NLDS matchup. Both starters were sharp: Logan Henderson allowed one earned run over five innings with four strikeouts and three walks, while Michael King matched him with one earned run across five frames, striking out six without a walk.

Milwaukee's rally for a last-strike win puts San Diego on the ropes heading home, but the box score tells a story of squandered chances on both sides.

How Our Pick Graded

Our moneyline call on Milwaukee landed. The Brewers won, and the read that Henderson's command profile would hold up in October was correct — he kept the Padres to two hits and one earned run.

We also took San Diego +1.5 on the run line, which cashed, and the under, which hit comfortably with seven total runs.

Prop Board: A Split

Jake Bauers over 0.50 walks was our favorite number and it missed. Bauers went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and no walks. Brice Turang over 0.50 walks also missed; he finished 0-for-4 with one strikeout and no walks.

Logan Henderson over 6.50 strikeouts missed. Henderson recorded four strikeouts in five innings, falling short of a line we considered underpriced given his 10.07 K/9.

Takeaway

The lesson is straightforward: walk props depend on starters missing bats and finding the edges, and King carved up the zone with zero walks. When a pitcher with a soft walk rate suddenly locates, the plus-money walk overs evaporate. For the rest of this series, we'll weigh recent command trends more heavily than season-long rates before stacking free passes.