Rays Beat Yankees 5-2 in ALDS Game 2: Schlittler K Prop Misses

by Earl·October 6, 2026

The Tampa Bay Rays beat the New York Yankees 5-2 on Monday at Tropicana Field, taking a 2-0 lead in the ALDS behind small ball and a sloppy three-error first inning from New York.

Cam Schlittler, the story of this game on paper, lasted just 4.1 innings: 2 earned runs on 6 hits with 2 strikeouts and 1 walk. Freddy Peralta gave Tampa Bay 4.2 innings of 1-run ball, and the Rays bullpen did the rest.

How the picks graded

Moneyline, Yankees (-130): LOSS. The market nudged toward New York and the road favorite never delivered.
Run line, Rays +1.5: WIN. Tampa Bay won outright, so the cushion never came into play.
Total, Under 6.5: LOSS. Seven combined runs pushed this over.
Cam Schlittler over 6.5 strikeouts (-138): LOSS. He finished with 2, well short of a 7-plus baseline.
Ben Rice over 1.5 total bases (+130): WIN. Rice homered twice and finished with 8 total bases — the plus-money prop hit comfortably.
Liam Hicks over 0.5 hits (-134): LOSS. Hicks went 0-for-3 with an RBI.

What it means going forward

The run line and Rice cashed exactly as scripted, but the strikeout prop was the lesson: a 7.24 K-per-start average can mask how quickly a short outing caps a pitcher's total. When a starter's leash depends on a lineup that grinds out at-bats, the under on his strikeout number deserves a longer look than the season rate suggests.