121 Losses to One Win From the ALCS: Inside the White Sox's Improbable October

Two Octobers ago, the Chicago White Sox lost 121 games. Last season they lost 102 more. On Wednesday night at Rate Field, they can clinch a home playoff series for the first time in 120 years.

That is not a typo, and it is not a soft framing. The White Sox lead the Cleveland Guardians 2-0 in the American League Division Series after a 3-0 shutout in Game 1 and a Game 2 win in which Cleveland's bullpen absorbed the blame. A win Wednesday sends Chicago to the ALCS — and would mark the franchise's first home playoff clincher since the 1906 World Series. Per Yahoo Sports, the White Sox are the only team in major league history to follow consecutive 100-loss seasons with a playoff berth. They already ended a 21-year wait by sweeping Houston in the Wild Card round, their first series win since the 2005 World Series.

The gap between the two clubs is wider than a 2-0 series lead suggests. Chicago finished 88-78 with a plus-67 run differential, scoring 4.8 runs per game while allowing 4.39. Cleveland went 85-79 with a run differential of plus-7, averaging 4.15 runs scored and 4.11 allowed. The White Sox were 48-33 at home. In 10 head-to-head meetings this season, Chicago won seven.

The Pitching Question That Defines Game 3

Sean Newcomb gets the ball for Chicago, and his stat line is one of the stranger ones you'll find at this stage of a postseason. He carries a 3.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 90.1 innings with 84 strikeouts — but those innings have come in 60 appearances, only six of them starts. His expected ERA sits at 4.27, more than a full run above his actual mark, and opposing hitters have an expected batting average of .254 against a .223 actual figure.

The culprit is his sinker, thrown 20.9 percent of the time and hit for a .322 average, .437 slugging and .375 wOBA. What saves him is the secondary mix: a slurve used 31 percent of the time that holds hitters to a .173 average, and a curveball grading in the 94th percentile for spin. If Cleveland hunts the sinker and lays off the breaking ball, Newcomb's night could unravel early.

Cleveland counters with Daniel Espino, whose surface numbers undersell him. A 4.11 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 15.1 innings hide a 2.90 expected ERA and 25 strikeouts in that span — a 14.67 K/9 rate. His four-seamer, thrown 61.9 percent of the time, has produced a .148 average against, a 41.9 percent whiff rate and a 48.5 percent strikeout rate. The slider is the soft spot: .304 average and .565 slugging allowed.

What the Market Is Saying

The total on this game has fallen a full run since opening, from 8.5 to 7.5, while Chicago's moneyline has drifted from -130 to -118 and Cleveland's price has shortened from +110 to +100. That movement reflects two things at once: a Cleveland offense that has produced almost exclusively via the home run this series, and a matchup profile suggesting both starters can miss bats. The implied probability on Chicago is roughly 54 percent — a near coin flip for a team one win from history.

The Bullpen Ledger

The one place Cleveland holds a clear edge is health. The Guardians report no injuries. Chicago's list is long and entirely on the pitching side: Jordan Leasure, Ky Bush, Mike Vasil, Prelander Berroa and Drew Thorpe are all on the 60-day injured list, with Luis Castillo on the 15-day. Outfielders Tanner Murray and Brooks Baldwin are also out for the season. If Newcomb is knocked out early, Chicago's bullpen — carrying a 4.22 season ERA and 7 blown saves — is thinner than it was in Games 1 and 2.

For a team that lost 121 games two years ago, that is the only thing standing between them and 120 years of waiting ending on the South Side.