Guardians Edge Rays 3-2 in Game 3: Williams Ks 9, Jax Chased Early

The Guardians took a 2-1 series lead in the ALCS with a 3-2 win over the Rays at Progressive Field, and the game followed the shape of the pitching matchup almost exactly. Gavin Williams was the story — nine strikeouts over five innings of two-hit, two-run ball — while Tampa Bay's Griffin Jax, a converted reliever making his first career playoff start, was chased after four innings with three runs allowed on five hits, two walks, and a homer.

The premium pick: Cleveland moneyline — WIN. Williams' swing-and-miss stuff and the Guardians' bullpen were enough to hold a one-run lead, and the read on the starting-pitcher gap held up.

Run line: Rays +1.5 — WIN. Tampa Bay lost by a single run, so the cushion cashed.

Total: Under — WIN. Five combined runs stayed under the number, exactly as the low total suggested.

On the props, we went 1-for-3:

• Gavin Williams over 6.50 strikeouts (+113) — WIN. Nine punchouts cleared the number by two and a half, and it never looked in doubt.
• Griffin Jax under 11.50 outs (-108) — LOSS. Four innings is 12 outs, so this one missed by a single out. The role-based read was right; the line was just a hair too tight.
• Junior Caminero over 1.50 total bases (+135) — LOSS. Caminero went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts, a reminder that even the best bats can be overmatched by elite whiff stuff.

Takeaway for future picks: The Williams strikeout over was the cleanest edge on the board, and it hit comfortably. The Jax outs prop shows the danger of buying a half-out discount on a starter whose leash is genuinely short — the logic was sound, the margin wasn't. And Caminero's four-strikeout night is a useful caution: against a 97th-percentile strikeout pitcher, even a 42-homer bat carries real bust risk on total bases.