One Run in Two Games, Then the Hard Part: Chicago's Offseason Begins With Seiya Suzuki

The Cubs' 2026 season did not end with a slow fade. It ended with a shutout and a whimper.

San Diego swept Chicago out of the NL Wild Card Series at Petco Park — 8-0 in Game 1, then 4-1 in Game 2, when five Padres pitchers combined on a five-hitter and Gavin Sheets broke it open with a pinch-hit two-run homer. It was revenge served cold for a Padres club the Cubs had beaten five times in six regular-season meetings, including a 23-3 demolition at Wrigley on July 1.

That scoreline feels like it happened in another lifetime. Over their final ten games, the Cubs hit .221 with a .291 on-base percentage and a .333 slugging mark. Their September record was 11-15 with a negative run differential. A team that finished 89-73 with a plus-136 run differential and sat second in the NL Central behind a 103-win Milwaukee club simply stopped scoring when it mattered most.

Now comes the part that shapes 2027, and it centers on Seiya Suzuki.

The five-year verdict

Suzuki's 2026 line: .270/.368/.473 with 26 home runs, 31 doubles, 86 RBI and 96 runs in 143 games — a 5.1 bWAR season and the steadiest version of the profile Chicago has seen. His OPS by year as a Cub reads .769, .842, .848, .804, .841. He walked in 12.8 percent of plate appearances (91st percentile) and chased less than almost anyone (89th percentile), which is why his wOBA sat 26 points above his expected mark.

The split that matters most: .921 OPS at Wrigley, .763 on the road. He is a different, lesser hitter away from the North Side, and he turns 32 next season.

He's a free agent, and the reporting points one direction. FanSided's Cubs outlet noted the club is positioned to recoup draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while MLB Trade Rumors relayed The Athletic's Mitch Bannon that Toronto is expected to pursue him — and that Chicago is reportedly not expected to bid in a multi-team auction. Multiple outlets have framed it as a payroll decision: pitching money versus the outfielder.

What it costs to let him walk

Losing Suzuki and Ian Happ (.218/.326/.412, 189 strikeouts in 156 games) in one winter strips the outfield corners bare. Matt Shaw hit .237 in 77 games; Pedro Ramirez is a 2027-and-beyond name, not an answer. Counting on those two alone, as FanSided argued, is not a plan.

The counterweight is Pete Crow-Armstrong, who just authored a genuinely historic season: .280/.372/.570, 45 homers, 41 steals, 107 RBI, 119 runs, 26 outs above average in center, and 9.83 bWAR — the highest batting WAR in the sport. He is the reason the Cubs can survive an outfield reshuffle. He is not the reason to create one unnecessarily.

Where the money should actually go

If Suzuki walks, the rotation demands attention. Shota Imanaga was excellent — 3.77 ERA, 174 strikeouts in 174.1 innings, 1.10 WHIP — and Clay Holmes posted a 3.29 ERA across 18 starts, though his future is its own open question. Behind them, the 60-day IL list swallowed Justin Steele, Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Hunter Harvey, Porter Hodge, Phil Maton and Shelby Miller. The staff's 4.20 ERA and a bullpen that finished at 4.50 with a 1.426 WHIP explain a lot of Craig Counsell's late-inning grimaces.

Chicago won 89 games with a roster that had real holes. The Suzuki call determines whether the front office patches them or widens them.