103 Wins in Milwaukee, 75 in Cincinnati: The Number Driving the Reds' Uncomfortable Offseason

The Cincinnati Reds finished 2026 at 75–87, dead last in the NL Central, with a run differential of minus-160. That is the backdrop for everything being said and written about the franchise this week — a stretch of news in which the actual baseball has been over for a while and the arguments have taken over.

The loudest voice belongs to Joey Votto, who spent the week criticizing the organization's approach to roster building and its reluctance to invest in the areas that separate good clubs from bad ones. Votto's commentary landed alongside reporting and commentary questioning whether the current front office, led by general manager Nick Krall, is the group that should oversee the next rebuild. Fan sentiment, at least as measured by the outlets covering the team, is not subtle: a Red Reporter survey of readers came back overwhelmingly against the status quo.

That internal pressure is being amplified by external comparison. Milwaukee won 103 games. Tampa Bay won 98. Both are small-market clubs, and both have made deep October runs while the Reds watched. It's the most convenient stick available to criticize Cincinnati's ownership, and it's an accurate one — the Brewers out-hit the Reds by a wide margin (.258 to .229) and outpaced them on the mound (3.37 ERA to 4.73) in 2026.

Which brings us to the story that will define the winter: Elly De La Cruz.

De La Cruz just turned in a genuinely excellent age-24 season — .283/.365/.515, 30 home runs, 30 stolen bases, 99 runs, and 5.6 WAR in 143 games. His quality-of-contact metrics are elite: a 16.0% barrel rate, a 117.4 mph max exit velocity, 53.7% of batted balls at 95 mph or harder, and expected numbers that line up almost exactly with his actual production. The one hole is swing-and-miss — 175 strikeouts in 559 at-bats, with a 44.7% strikeout rate against curveballs.

Because of that gap, trade speculation has followed him all offseason, and Votto has reportedly suggested the Reds should explore it. This is the fork in the road. De La Cruz is the most valuable asset the franchise has and the cheapest path to contention. Moving him would restock a thin farm system but would also signal another reset — and given that the Reds' championship odds sit in the longest tier available (100000 at several books, 50000 at others), the market already treats them as a non-factor. That's a description of where the team stands, not a recommendation of any kind; the point is that the gap between Cincinnati and the top of the NL is currently enormous.

The counterargument to a teardown is Chase Burns. As a rookie, Burns went 15–3 with a 2.86 ERA, 185 strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP over 154.1 innings, and he was the story of the season's best moments — including a series win in the Bronx that briefly pulled the club back near .500. A rotation with Burns at the front is a reason to compete now rather than later. Whether he gets support is another matter: Hunter Greene made only five starts (6.83 ERA in 27.2 innings), and the staff as a whole walked 643 batters, a 4.18 BB/9 that undercut everything behind it.

The roster is already churning. Cincinnati avoided arbitration with switch-hitting utilityman Oswaldo Cabrera, lost a fan-favorite outfielder to free agency and another to a Mariners waiver claim, and is staring at Tyler Stephenson's walk year after a .241/.323/.404 season. Reunion chatter around Sonny Gray and Eugenio Suárez, and speculation about a Matt McLain position change, all point to a club patching holes rather than rebuilding a contender.

The most likely outcome for 2027 is another year in the middle: Burns good, De La Cruz great, and the supporting cast still short. Unless ownership decides the Votto critique deserves an answer rather than a shrug — in which case this is the offseason everything changes.