Cincinnati's "Run It Back" Has a Hunter Greene-Shaped Hole

The most consequential Reds news of the week wasn't a transaction. It was the absence of one.

After a 75-87 season that finished with a -160 run differential, a 28th-place power rating of -1.03, and a final-day loss that Yahoo's Reds coverage described as a "fitting end to a godawful year," Cincinnati has reportedly decided against overhauling its front office for 2027. The franchise is running it back with the same decision-makers, same core, and a payroll described in offseason reporting as razor-thin.

That's the story, and it's a harder one to sell than it sounds, because running it back assumes the roster you're running back is worth keeping.

What's actually coming back

The good news is real. Elly De La Cruz at 24 just posted the fourth 30-30 season in franchise history — .283/.365/.515 with 30 homers, 30 steals, and 5.63 WAR — and he was arguably the best hitter in baseball down the stretch, slashing .348 with nine homers and a 1.156 OPS in 24 September games. Sal Stewart, a rookie, went 32/112 with a .787 OPS across all 162 games and is priced as a heavy NL Rookie of the Year favorite (implied probability north of 80% at one book). Chase Burns won 15 games with a 2.86 ERA over 154.1 innings and struck out 185.

That's a legitimate young spine. Two middle-of-the-order bats and a front-line starter under club control.

The hole in the plan

Here's the problem: the third piece of that spine isn't there anymore. Hunter Greene made five starts in 2026 (6.83 ERA), went back on the injured list with elbow soreness, and underwent his second Tommy John surgery in August. The expectation across multiple outlets is that he misses all of 2027.

That leaves Cincinnati's rotation anchored by Burns and a cast of arms that produced a 4.70 team ERA (27th in baseball), a 1.43 WHIP, and 643 walks — the 4.18 BB/9 mark being one of the worst staffs in the sport at throwing strikes. Spencer Steer and Blake Dunn are also on the 60-day injured list, and the roster has already started thinning out via free agency and a waiver claim by Seattle.

Then there's the offense. The Reds hit .227 as a team with a .694 OPS and struck out 1,457 times while scoring 666 runs. Reports out of the market suggest as many as five of the worst nine qualified hitters in MLB wore this uniform in 2026. Matt McLain's .185 average and .608 OPS in 437 at-bats is the most glaring example. Some of those contracts likely return because the budget doesn't allow otherwise.

The pressure test

The uncomfortable context: Milwaukee and Tampa Bay — two organizations that operate on similar financial footing — are playing deep into October by developing and trading well rather than spending. That comparison is going to follow this front office all winter.

The buy-low argument exists. Cincinnati's rating climbed 0.52 points in a week despite the record, and the market appears to be pricing them closer to their prior-season form than their 2026 output. But a market gap isn't a roster fix.

The 2027 version of the Reds can be better. A full season of De La Cruz (he played 143 games), Stewart's Year 2, and Burns at the top of a rotation are genuine building blocks. Running it back on the front office and running it back on the rotation — with Greene's spot unfilled and no money to fill it — are two different decisions. Only one of them looks defensible.