Brewers Edge Rays 3-2 in World Series Game 1 Thriller

The Milwaukee Brewers took Game 1 of the World Series 3-2 over the Tampa Bay Rays at American Family Field on Friday night, riding a tight pitching duel and just enough offense to hold off a late Rays push. It was the kind of low-scoring, tense opener the pregame market expected — and it left our card with a mixed grade.

The pick: Milwaukee moneyline — WIN. The Brewers built a lead and made it stand, exactly the script we sold. Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 — WIN. The Rays kept it within a run, so the cover landed even in defeat.

The miss: Over. The total never got there. Two elite arms kept the game under the number, and our read that the favorite's price had run past its probability was right on the side but wrong on the scoring environment.

On the prop board, Jacob Misiorowski over 6.50 strikeouts — LOSS. He finished with 3 Ks over 5 innings, well short of the bar. Misiorowski under 3.50 hits allowed — LOSS. He allowed 4 hits, one over the line. Nick Martinez over 1.50 earned runs — WIN. Martinez allowed 2 earned runs over 5 innings, clearing the bar.

The takeaway: the side and run line reads were sound, but the strikeout and hits props on Misiorowski were too aggressive against a Rays lineup that made contact. Expect tighter prop lines on him going forward, and value on the under in Game 2 if the market overcorrects.