Michael King's Opt-Out Is the First Real Test for San Diego's $3.9 Billion Ownership

The Padres won 91 games in 2026, finished with the National League's fourth-best record, and still went home in October after Milwaukee beat them three games to one in the NLDS. That outcome wasn't a fluke or a bad week. It was the predictable end of a season in which San Diego's rotation was patched together week to week, and it's the exact problem the franchise's new owners inherited.

Now the bill comes due, and it starts with Michael King.

The ace who might not be back

King was the anchor: 32 starts, 185 innings, a 3.21 ERA, 159 strikeouts against 70 walks, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 4.26 WAR that led the staff by a wide margin. He was also, by FanSided's reporting, a player with an opt-out — meaning the Padres' most reliable starter could hit the open market five days after the World Series ends.

There's a real debate buried in the numbers. King's expected ERA came in at 4.42 against that 3.21 actual mark, and his expected wOBA allowed (.322) sat 27 points above his actual (.295). His changeup did enormous work — a .241 wOBA and 27 percent whiff rate over 788 pitches — while the sinker got hammered to a .365 wOBA. He's a good pitcher whose results outran his contact profile. He is not a pitcher a team with rotation holes can casually let walk.

Pivetta is a coin flip the Padres can't easily afford to lose

The second decision is Nick Pivetta, and it's messier. He made only eight starts in 2026 — 34.2 innings, a 2.86 ERA, 42 strikeouts and just eight walks — before medical questions clouded his option. Small sample, real risk, and yet the alternative is worse: a 2027 rotation that already has holes.

Joe Musgrove's return is reason for optimism, not a plan. Walker Buehler made 32 starts but posted a 4.63 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Lucas Giolito (4.56 ERA in 25.2 innings) is on the 60-day injured list alongside Bryan Hoeing, Ramón Laureano, Luis Rengifo and Rodolfo Durán. San Diego used 24 pitchers in 2026 and still landed ninth in baseball with a 3.90 staff ERA — a genuinely good result that required constant improvisation. Strip out King and Pivetta and that ninth-place finish has nothing holding it up.

The offense isn't bailing anybody out

The lineup that returns is not one that can absorb a weaker staff. San Diego hit .246/.321/.722 with 171 homers. Fernando Tatis Jr. was excellent (.289/.358/.828, 25 homers, 38 steals), but Manny Machado's .217/.303/.710 line — with $280MM still owed through 2033 — and Xander Bogaerts' .676 OPS are the two largest contracts on the roster producing below league average. Jackson Merrill (.743 OPS) is solid, not a carry.

What it means for 2027

Ownership matters here in a way it rarely does. José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones bought the club for a then-record $3.9 billion and publicly promised to do what it takes to win a World Series. Meanwhile, payroll has declined every year since Peter Seidler's death. The gap between the promise and the ledger will be measured in exactly two decisions this winter: King and Pivetta.

The division isn't waiting. The Dodgers won 100 games. Arizona won 86. A 91-win Padres team with a top-five power rating and a neutral schedule can absolutely contend again — but only if the rotation is rebuilt rather than re-taped. That work starts now, and it starts with whether the new owners pay for their own ace.