The Nationals Outscored Their Opponents in 2026 and Still Lost 85 Games

The most consequential news out of Washington this week wasn't a signing or a trade. It was continuity. According to reporting from Spencer Nusbaum of The Athletic, the Nationals plan to bring back manager Blake Butera's entire coaching staff for 2027, keeping the group intact for a second season. For an organization that just completed a sweeping overhaul — new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni, a first-time manager in Butera, and a roster turned over from the top down — that's a deliberate bet that the bones of this thing are right.

The standings say 77-85, fourth in the NL East, 17 games behind Atlanta. The underlying numbers say something stranger.

Washington finished the season with a plus-6 run differential, 821 runs scored against 815 allowed. Teams that outscore their opponents do not normally lose 85 games. The gap between the record and the run margin points to the one area that undid the season: a bullpen that finished with a 6.14 ERA, a 1.639 WHIP, 18 blown saves and only 16 saves. The relief corps struck out 9.03 per nine, so the stuff was there. The results were not.

That's the context in which keeping the staff — and specifically pitching coach Simon Mathews — becomes a real decision rather than a formality. If the bullpen is the difference between 77 wins and something in the high 80s, the people responsible for fixing it are now on the clock.

The rotation offers reasons for optimism. MacKenzie Gore logged 173 innings with 174 strikeouts, albeit at a 4.58 ERA. Connelly Early, the deadline acquisition, posted a 3.33 ERA over 18 starts and 94.2 innings and looks like a rotation fixture. Brad Lord was quietly useful across 40 appearances (3.78 ERA). Jake Irvin's 5.48 ERA in 22 games is the kind of line that gets a roster spot contested in March.

Offensively, the top of the order is settled. James Wood slashed .265/.388/.503 with 30 homers, 106 runs, 21 steals and 102 walks — the on-base skills are real even with 179 strikeouts. CJ Abrams went 33/34 with 106 RBI. Keibert Ruiz hit .280 in 105 games behind the plate. The concern is the next tier: Dylan Crews finished at .223 with a .663 OPS in 109 games, and Jacob Young's .708 OPS in 140 games is fine rather than foundational.

Health matters here too. Five players ended the year on the 60-day injured list — Mitchell Parker, Matt Waldron, Ken Waldichuk, Drew Millas and PJ Poulin — which quietly thinned both the rotation and the bullpen depth down the stretch.

The bigger question is external. A lockout looms, and there's a growing chorus that ownership, led by Mark Lerner, needs to actually spend. Free-agent speculation has centered on adding offense (Brandon Lowe's name has surfaced) and, predictably, more relief arms. Washington has a young, cost-controlled core and a front office that just earned a second year to see the plan through. What it doesn't have is a bullpen, a proven back-end starter, or a track record of writing big checks.

Keeping the staff was the easy call, and probably the right one. Whether it matters depends on what Toboni does between now and the work stoppage.