The Padres Lost 185 Innings and Their Ace in a Single Week

The San Diego Padres won 91 games, finished second in the NL West, and authored the most satisfying week of their October — a two-game sweep of the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, the first playoff series victory of this core's run. Then the Milwaukee Brewers, the eventual World Series champions, ended it in Game 4 of the NLDS.

What followed was faster and more consequential than the postseason itself. Within days of the final out, the rotation came apart.

Michael King declined his 2027 player option and became a free agent, walking away from roughly $61 million remaining on his deal. Nick Pivetta, Lucas Giolito and Griffin Canning all had their options declined. Only Kyle Hart's option was exercised. In the space of one week, the Padres went from a team with a rotation to a team with a to-do list.

King is the one that stings. He made 32 starts, threw 185 innings, posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 159 strikeouts, and finished 12-10 for a club that needed every one of those innings. He was tenth among National League starters in ERA, and in the NLDS against Milwaukee he allowed one run across 14 innings — the only Padres pitcher who looked like he belonged in that series. He can still re-sign; free agents have a five-day window to negotiate exclusively with their previous club. But after opting out for the second consecutive winter, his market will be national, not local.

Pivetta's exit is quieter but just as telling. He signed a four-year, $55 million deal before the 2025 season with opt-outs baked in by design. In 2026 he was excellent in a small sample — a 2.86 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 34.2 innings over eight starts — but the structure of the contract meant San Diego was always renting. Giolito (4.56 ERA in six games, ending the year on the 60-day IL) and Canning (5.68 ERA across 88.2 innings) were depth that didn't hold.

So what's left? Randy Vásquez is the genuine bright spot, a 10-6 breakout with a 3.90 ERA over 140.2 innings and 23 starts. JP Sears (4.68 ERA in eight games) and Hart (4.92 across 46 appearances, mostly in relief) are useful, not anchoring. And Joe Musgrove, who hasn't pitched in two years, is currently projected as the Opening Day starter — which tells you exactly how much work A.J. Preller has to do.

The context matters: this rotation ranked 21st in the majors in 2026 with a 4.40 ERA, a 1.335 WHIP and only 37 quality starts. It was already the roster's weakest link, and it just got worse. The bullpen can't absorb that again — 3.17 ERA, 10.25 strikeouts per nine, with Adrian Morejon (2.83 ERA, 107 strikeouts in 86 innings) the priority to retain. The lineup can't slug past it either: .246/.321/.401 as a team, with Manny Machado hitting .217 in 158 games.

The good news is that ownership has publicly committed to spending. Kwanza Jones and José E. Feliciano bought the club for a record $3.9 billion and have vowed to do what it takes, against a backdrop of payroll declining every year since Peter Seidler's death and a farm system too thin to trade from. The Padres don't need a rebuild. They need three starting pitchers, and they have the money to buy them.

The 91-win baseline is real. Whether it survives the winter depends entirely on how quickly the rotation gets refilled.