The D-backs Won 86 Games and Are Cutting Payroll. Ketel Marte Is the Test Case.

Arizona finished 2026 at 86-76, nine runs to the good (739 scored, 730 allowed), and on the outside of the postseason looking in for the third straight year since the 2023 World Series run. That's the definition of a team stuck in the middle: good enough to matter in September, not good enough to matter in October, and now reportedly preparing to cut payroll in 2027 after three seasons of record-setting spending that didn't buy a playoff berth.

Which brings us to the week's defining storyline. According to reporting from MLB Trade Rumors and MLB.com, the Diamondbacks' biggest offseason question is whether they'll finally line up a Ketel Marte trade. Arizona fielded interest in the second baseman early last offseason as due diligence while hunting controllable pitching; this winter, the expectation is a more aggressive shop.

The case for selling is the surface numbers. Marte hit .249/.316/.432 with 22 homers, 76 RBI and a .748 OPS across 141 games — a steep fall from the .893 OPS he posted in 2025 and the .932 mark in 2024.

The case against selling is everything underneath them. Marte's expected stats paint a very different player: a .280 expected average against his actual .249, a .461 expected slug versus .432 actual, and a .349 expected wOBA against .323. He still graded out in the 90th percentile in xBA, the 85th in xwOBA, and the 88th in OAA with four outs above average at second base. His 2.5 WAR came in a down year. He's 32, under contract through 2031 per reports of a seven-year, $116.5 million extension, and his sprint speed (26.8 ft/s, 33rd percentile) is the one number that says decline is real.

Trade him now and you're selling low on a player whose batted-ball profile says the bat is fine. Keep him and you're paying market rate for a roster that has to get cheaper. That tension is the whole winter.

It also isn't the only domino. Corbin Burnes will not exercise his opt-out, per Bob Nightengale, locking in $35 million annually through 2030 with $11 million deferred each year. On a payroll being trimmed, that's an enormous share of the ledger tied to a pitcher who made three starts in 2026 — 10.1 innings, 7.84 ERA — between Tommy John rehab, a teres major strain, and season-ending shoulder inflammation. His last healthy-ish stretch, 2025, was a 2.66 ERA in 64 1/3 innings; his last full season, 2024, was a 2.92 ERA over 194 1/3. The D-backs need that version, not the rehab version, because the rotation around him is thinning. Michael Soroka declined his end of a $10 million mutual option and hits free agency after a 3.41 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 116 innings. Zac Gallen's 6.07 ERA in 105 1/3 innings is a problem nobody can paper over. Brandon Pfaadt (3.77 ERA, 136 innings, 1.18 WHIP) is the one starter who took a step forward.

General manager Mike Hazen has said he wants controllable starting pitching, most likely via trade, and new pitching coach Ben Fritz arrives from San Diego's staff to help sort it out.

What Arizona shouldn't remake is the bullpen, which posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.066 WHIP with 23 saves. And the offense's splits explain the other stated priority — a left-handed impact bat. The D-backs hit .275 with a .782 OPS against left-handed pitching and just .235 with a .697 OPS against righties. A lineup that strikes out 1,250 times and slugs .404 needs a real threat from the left side.

The Marte decision comes first. Everything else in Arizona's winter waits on it.