MLB Power Rankings Week 26: Milwaukee Holds No. 1 as the Whole Board Bleeds
The Top Is Bleeding Too
Milwaukee is still No. 1. That's the headline, and it's also the least interesting thing about this week's board.
Here's what actually matters: the Brewers' 1.12 rating is down 0.23 in a week. The Cubs' 1.08 is down 0.19. The Yankees' 0.49 is down 0.38. The Phillies cratered 0.33, the Braves 0.37, the Red Sox 0.54, the Tigers 0.58. This isn't one team slipping — it's the entire ratings board drifting downward at once, which is what happens when you're 26 weeks into a season and attrition starts compounding faster than anyone can patch it.
The top five this week: MIL (-0.23), CHC (-0.19), LAD (-0.07), NYY (-0.38), TB (-0.12). Not a single team in that group gained ground. That's the story.
The Top Five
1. Milwaukee Brewers — 1.12 rating, 98-59, SOS 0.00. Milwaukee holds the top spot with a 1.119 runs-neutral rating, but that number has slid 0.231 in a week and already bakes in a 0.17 dock for the Woodruff and bullpen absences. The 98-59 record and the 0.29 vs-market edge say the market has been slow to fully price this team, so I'm a buyer on Milwaukee laying anything under a reasonable number. A 98-win team with a positive market gap doesn't come around often.
2. Chicago Cubs — 1.08 rating, 87-69, SOS 0.01. Chicago sits at No. 2 with a 1.082 runs-neutral rating, but that number has slid 0.188 in a week and already bakes in a 0.23 dock for a bullpen missing Ben Brown, Trent Thornton, and Phil Maton. The 87-69 record and 0.77 vs-market mark say this team has been slightly better than the price all year, so the recent dip looks more like noise than a real talent collapse. The gap to Milwaukee is now just 0.04 — that's a rounding error.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers — 0.71 rating, 96-60, SOS -0.04. The Dodgers rate at 0.708 runs better than an average team on a neutral field, third in the league, but that's down 0.072 from last week and well below their 1.404 prior-season mark. A soft -0.042 schedule isn't doing them any favors. Their market price sits 0.92 runs above this rating, meaning the public is paying a hefty premium for the name. At 96-60, they're good — just not as good as the sticker price suggests.
4. New York Yankees — 0.49 rating, 90-66, SOS -0.06. The Yankees sit at a 0.488 neutral-field rating, but that's down a massive 0.379 from last week and a steep fall from their 1.239 prior-season mark. This is a clear sell-high signal on reputation. Their -0.1 vs-market edge suggests the public is still pricing them near their old form, but with Ryan Weathers and Trent Grisham out, the roster doesn't match the brand. Ninety wins is real; the rating says the gap between the record and the true talent is widening.
5. Tampa Bay Rays — 0.38 rating, 95-61, SOS -0.06. Tampa Bay sits at No. 5 with a plus-0.377 run rating on a neutral field, but that number has slid 0.122 in a week and already absorbs a 0.24 dock for McClanahan, Cleavinger, and Wells being out. At plus-0.04 versus the market, this is a slight sell — the rating is trending the wrong way and the pitching losses are real. A 95-61 record is impressive, but the rotation depth is being tested in a way that shows up in the number.
Risers and Fallers
The biggest rank jumps belong to Detroit (up six spots to No. 12), Boston (up five to No. 10), and San Francisco (up five to No. 26). Before you get excited: none of them earned it. Detroit's rating fell 0.58, Boston's fell 0.54, and San Francisco's fell 0.86 — they moved up because teams around them fell harder. That's the kind of week it was.
The real fallers are measured in rating, not rank. San Francisco lost 0.86 runs of rating in seven days. Oakland lost 0.80. Los Angeles Angels lost 0.60. Detroit lost 0.58. Boston lost 0.54. Baltimore lost 0.49. These aren't rounding errors — these are teams getting meaningfully worse in real time, and the market hasn't fully caught up on all of them.
At the other end, only one team in the top 20 gained rating this week: the White Sox, up 0.08 to 0.18. San Diego was flat at plus-0.002. That's it. When 28 of your top 30 teams are flat or declining, you're looking at a league-wide attrition week, not a set of individual stories.
How the Board Sets Up
Milwaukee (No. 1, 1.12). The Brewers are the only team in the top five with a positive vs-market edge that hasn't been fully priced. If the rating stabilizes next week, they're the cleanest buy on the board. If it slides again, the gap to Chicago closes to nothing.
Chicago Cubs (No. 2, 1.08). The Cubs are 0.04 behind Milwaukee with a 0.77 vs-market mark — the market has been slow on them all year. A bullpen that's missing three arms is the only thing keeping this from being a coin flip for No. 1.
Atlanta (No. 9, 0.12). The Braves cratered 0.37 this week and already carry a 0.41 injury dock, but the market is pricing them 0.18 runs worse than my number. A 92-win team with a buy-low signal is worth watching. If the rating stabilizes, they're a value play.
San Francisco (No. 26, -1.15). The Giants lost 0.86 in a week — the sharpest decline on the board — and they're still 65-92. This isn't a market overreaction; it's a genuinely bad club getting worse. Sell.
The Bottom Line
Week 26 is when the board stops lying to you. The teams at the top are still there, but they're all bleeding. The teams at the bottom are bleeding faster. Milwaukee holds No. 1 by a nose over Chicago, and the only team in the top 20 that actually gained ground this week was the White Sox — which tells you everything about the state of the league right now.
Buy Milwaukee, buy Atlanta on the dip, sell the Yankees on reputation, and don't touch the Giants at any price. That's the week.
— Earl