How Earl rates MLB teams

Earl's MLB Power Rating is a single number in RUNS on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's rating approximates the expected margin. It is built from a ridge-regularised least-squares fit on game margins (an SRS/Massey-style model) with a fitted home-field term, recency weighting (recent games count more), and shrinkage toward the prior season's final ratings that fades as games accrue. Updates use FINAL regular-season games only and never look ahead.

Reading the number

• Rating (points, neutral field).A team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the expected margin. A +6.0 team is about six points better than average, i.e. roughly a six-point favourite on a neutral field.
• Δ Wk. Movement versus last week — ratings are anchored, so they change only as much as results justify.
• SOS. Strength of schedule — the average rating of the opponents a team has faced, expressed in points versus the league average. A positive SOS means a team has played a harder-than-average schedule; a negative SOS means an easier one. (It is not a ranking — it's the same points scale as the rating itself, so it can be negative.)
• Injuries.Earl docks points off a team's rating for key players unavailable for that week's game. Each unavailable player is worth a position-based amount (a starting quarterback is worth far more than a rotational defender), scaled by how big a role he actually plays and by how likely he is to miss the game (Out / Doubtful / Questionable, or a practice-status fallback). The docked total is shown as Inj. The rating still starts from on-field results, so the injury dock reflects who is expected to be missing going forward.
• vs the Market. Separately, Earl solves the same rating model on theclosing point spreadsof every game to produce a market-implied rating, then places it on Earl's points scale and reports the difference as vs Mkt. A positive number means Earl is higher on the team than the betting market; a negative number means the market is higher. The market is neveran input to Earl's rating — it is a comparison only.

Principles

• Every rating is decomposed into its inputs, so any ranking can be audited.
• Ratings use FINAL games only — never future results.
• Early in the season ratings shrink toward last season's finish, then stand on their own.
• Earl's written take is commentary on the number — never an input to it.

Current snapshot: MLB 2026, Week 27.