Ravens 34, Cowboys 31: Baltimore Wins in Rio on Final Play

The Ravens escaped Rio with a 34-31 win over the Cowboys on Tyler Loop's last-second field goal, capping a game that swung on fourth-quarter fourth downs and never let the scoreboard settle. Baltimore led 17-13 at halftime and 24-21 as the teams traded touchdowns, but Dallas grabbed a 28-24 edge after stopping the Ravens on fourth down. Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, and Loop closed it out.

Our premium card had a split result. The moneyline on Baltimore cashed — the Ravens won outright. The spread call on Baltimore missed: a win by three points does not cover, so that one goes in the loss column. The Under also missed, with 65 combined points blowing past the number.

Our pre-game reasoning leaned heavily on Baltimore's ground game and Dallas's inability to generate pressure. The Ravens did win, and the game stayed close enough to validate the matchup read on the scoreboard — but the defensive concerns we flagged for Dallas showed up on both sides, which is exactly why the total sailed over.

The takeaway: when a game is priced as a near toss-up and the edge is a specific matchup rather than a talent gap, the moneyline is the cleaner expression of that edge than laying points. The spread asked Baltimore to win by more than a field goal; the moneyline only asked them to win. On a neutral field with a thin margin, that distinction is worth remembering the next time a similar spot appears on the board.