49ers Stay Perfect: Broncos Fall 24-14 in San Francisco

The San Francisco 49ers beat the Denver Broncos 24-14 on Sunday, moving to 4-0 and handing Denver a second straight loss. The story was simple: San Francisco made the timely plays, and Denver's comeback formula finally ran out of gas on the road.

How the premium pick graded

We sold Denver +2.5 and the Broncos moneyline at +124, with a projected 24-23 Denver win. Both lost. The Broncos never got the outright win, and the 10-point margin meant the spread missed by 7.5 points. That's a clean miss, no spin.

Our under on the total was the one that hit. Denver's offense managed just 14 points, and the game stayed beneath the number. When your dog pick loses outright but your total call lands, you take the split and move on.

What went wrong

The lean was that a thin home number against an undefeated favorite signaled sharp money on Denver. It didn't play out. San Francisco controlled the game and kept its perfect record intact, while the Broncos' late-game magic from earlier wins never showed up.

What it means going forward

A refusal to move off a key number is a signal, not a guarantee. When the undefeated home team is also the more complete team, the market's hesitation can simply be the market being right. Expect us to weigh team quality more heavily against pure line-movement reads in similar spots. The under, meanwhile, reinforced that Denver's offense travels poorly against disciplined defenses.