Packers Edge Buccaneers 17-14 as Rookie QB Falls Short

The Green Bay Packers escaped Tampa Bay with a 17-14 win on Sunday, and the game played out close to how the market hinted it would. With Baker Mayfield sidelined by a dislocated thumb, undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels made his first regular-season start, and the Buccaneers' offense never found a rhythm.

Green Bay's defense held Tampa Bay to 14 points, and the Packers did just enough on offense to leave with a three-point win. It wasn't pretty, but it was a win — and for a Green Bay team with its own issues, that matters.

How our premium pick graded out:

• Spread (Packers): WIN. Green Bay won outright by three, and the model's side came through.
• Total (Under): WIN. The game finished with 31 combined points, comfortably under the total.
• Moneyline (Packers): WIN. Green Bay got the outright victory.

Our model projected a 13.0-18.0 scoreline, and the final score of 17-14 landed right inside that range. The read on the quarterback situation — that a rookie making his first NFL start would drag this game down — proved correct across the board, with the spread, total, and moneyline all landing on the right side.

The takeaway: When a starting quarterback goes down and the market moves sharply, the number is usually telling you something real. That read put us on the right side of the spread, the total, and the moneyline, and the low-scoring, tight-margin shape of the game matched the projection almost exactly. We'll keep weighing those signals as the season moves into Week 5.