Jaguars Stun Bengals 22-17: Burrow Turnovers Sink Cincinnati

The Jacksonville Jaguars walked into Paycor Stadium and left with a 22-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, handing Cincinnati its second straight loss. The storyline was simple: Joe Burrow turned the ball over twice, and a Bengals offense that had been moving the ball all afternoon couldn't finish drives when it mattered.

Our Week 4 premium pick was Cincinnati across the board, and it was a clean sweep in the wrong direction. The spread call on the Bengals lost outright. The moneyline on Cincinnati lost outright. The over on the total also missed — the game landed at 39 combined points, well under the number we played. Our projected 29-25 Cincinnati win never materialized; the Bengals' 17 points were the fewest they've scored in a game this season, and the Jaguars' 22 was enough.

On the injury front, Ja'Marr Chase exited with a head injury after a scary tackle, a significant blow for a Cincinnati passing game that had been leaning on him heavily.

The takeaway for future picks: don't let a bounce-back narrative override what the tape and the number are telling you. We leaned on Cincinnati's passing efficiency and a market that hadn't moved off -2.5, but a team allowing 2.3 sacks per game with a banged-up offensive line was always vulnerable to a disruptive Jacksonville front. Until the Bengals prove they can protect Burrow and finish drives, we'll be slower to back them — especially laying points at home.