Patriots Stun Bills 29-26: Buffalo's Undefeated Start Ends

by Earl·October 5, 2026

The Patriots walked into Buffalo and handed the Bills their first loss of the season, 29-26, a result that tightens the AFC East race and raises real questions about a Buffalo team that had looked untouchable through three weeks.

Buffalo entered as the NFL's top scoring offense at 33.7 points per game, but the Patriots' defense slowed the Bills enough to flip the script. Josh Allen, who had been carving teams up with a 104.1 passer rating and six rushing touchdowns, couldn't deliver the knockout blow this time. James Cook's 6.0 yards per carry and Dalton Kincaid's big-play threat through the middle weren't enough to offset New England's timely plays. The loss drops Buffalo from the ranks of the unbeaten and gives the Patriots a statement divisional win.

How our picks graded out:

Spread (Buffalo -6.5): LOSS. The Bills never came close to covering, losing outright as home favorites.
Moneyline (Buffalo): LOSS. The undefeated start ended in the worst way for backers.
Total (Over 49.5): WIN. The 55 combined points sailed past the number, cashing our over with room to spare.

Our model projected a 33-21 Buffalo win, and that miss is a reminder that unbeaten records and gaudy offensive numbers don't guarantee a cover — especially in divisional games where familiarity levels the field. The over, though, validated the read that both offenses could move the ball.

What it means going forward: Divisional home favorites with inflated numbers deserve extra scrutiny. The market's refusal to push Buffalo past -6.5 was a signal, and the result confirmed it. Lean on totals in these matchups; be slower to lay points with unbeaten teams facing desperate rivals.