The Raiders Are 3-1, and Their Loss to the Chiefs Is the Best Evidence Yet

The Las Vegas Raiders lost on Sunday. Kansas City beat them 30-27 at Allegiant Stadium, and the Chiefs left town 4-0 while Klint Kubiak's team dropped to 3-1. That is the headline. It is also, strangely, the least interesting thing about the week.

Here's what makes the Week 4 result worth a closer look: the Raiders were supposed to be the get-right game on Kansas City's schedule. Instead, they took the Chiefs to the final possession in a game that featured a Rashee Rice hamstring exit, a Tyquan Thornton ankle injury, and a halftime interview in which Kubiak told CBS sideline reporter Tracy Wolfson, "We're going to win the game." The Chiefs did win. But the gap between these two teams in October 2026 looks nothing like the gap everyone assumed in August.

The numbers back up the eye test

Through four games, Las Vegas is averaging 28.8 points per game while allowing 21.0 — a plus-7.8 point differential. The offense sits at 349.5 yards per game, the defense at 357.5. Kirk Cousins has thrown for 1,026 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions on 64.6 percent completions, with a 99.5 passer rating and 7.1 yards per attempt. Ask any Raiders fan how they'd have felt about that line in September and you'd have gotten a laugh.

The wider trend is starker. Earl's rating model had the Raiders at No. 29 after Week 1 with a rating of -9.2. Four weeks later they're No. 15 at -0.7 — a 1.8-point jump in a single week, and a massive climb from last season's -10.6 rating. This isn't one fluky Sunday. It's a four-week repricing.

Where the concern actually lives

The pass game is carrying this team. The run game is not. Las Vegas averages just 93.0 rushing yards per game — compare that to Kansas City's 162.2 — and Ashton Jeanty has 280 yards on 81 carries with zero rushing touchdowns, though he's added 19 catches for 165 yards and two scores as a receiver. He's had excellent pass-catching history here; last season he posted 55 receptions and five touchdown grabs, and Kubiak entered the year saying the goal was to get him more involved in that phase. There have been calls in the market for more Mike Washington Jr. touches, and the Chiefs' ability to attack the interior of the offensive line is a recurring theme even with the Tyler Linderbaum signing.

Bowers is back, and the injury list is not friendly

Brock Bowers made his season debut in Week 3 after missing the first two games following a knee procedure, catching 10 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown in the 35-27 win at New Orleans. He was added to the injury report with an illness on Sunday but was officially active against the Chiefs. On the season he has 17 receptions for 208 yards and two scores.

Elsewhere the report is crowded. Jalen Nailor was ruled out of the Chiefs game, while Maxx Crosby (ankle, knee), Kwity Paye (ankle), Kolton Miller (shoulder) and Jeremy Chinn all appeared on the week's reports. Jackson Powers-Johnson was inactive in Week 4. Crosby's availability is the single biggest swing factor for a defense that needs to generate pressure without blitzing.

What's next

The Raiders travel to Gillette Stadium in Week 5 to face Drake Maye and a 2-2 Patriots team. The market has New England as a modest home favorite, with Las Vegas implied at roughly 36 percent — a line that says, plainly, the books still aren't fully sold. That's consistent with a team the model rates 8.4 points better than its market price suggests.

None of this guarantees anything. Road trips to Foxborough have a way of humbling reclamation projects, and a 3-1 start built on a comeback in New Orleans and a near-miss against the Chiefs is not the same thing as a 3-1 start built on dominance. But the Raiders have outperformed the closing line in all four games, they're 2-0 away from home, and they've already beaten the Dolphins and Chargers by double digits.

A year ago this team was a punchline in the rating model. This week it's a legitimate AFC West conversation. That's the story.