Patriots Blow Out Raiders 45-17: Our Week 5 Picks Recap

The New England Patriots demolished the Las Vegas Raiders 45-17 at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, turning a game that looked like a coin flip into a full-blown rout. The Patriots' offensive line kept Maxx Crosby quiet, and New England's offense rolled from start to finish.

We came into this one with a clear read: our model liked New England, even though the injury report suggested Las Vegas had the healthier roster. That read held up, and then some.

Premium pick results

• Patriots -3.5 (spread): WIN. New England won by 28, covering with room to spare. The market never moved off -3.5, and the books were right to hold firm.
• Patriots moneyline: WIN. A comfortable home victory.
• Over 44.5: WIN. With 62 combined points, the total sailed over by 17.5.

Our model projected a 29-24 New England win. The final was 45-17 — same winner, far more lopsided than expected. The Raiders' passing-heavy attack, which had been putting up 28.8 points per game, was held well below its season average, while the Patriots exceeded their projection by 16 points.

What it means going forward

When our model and the injury report disagree, this game is a reminder that the model's side can win decisively. The Patriots' ability to neutralize Crosby without extra help is a data point worth tracking for future New England lines. For Las Vegas, a one-dimensional offense that leans on Kirk Cousins and the passing game may struggle against defenses that can pressure without blitzing. We'll weigh that when the Raiders show up on the board again.