Steelers Beat Buccaneers 26-19: Rodgers Ties Manning as Pittsburgh Wins on the Road

The Pittsburgh Steelers left Raymond James Stadium with a 26-19 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, and the story was Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers threw for multiple scores for a fourth straight game, with two touchdown passes moving him into a tie with Peyton Manning on the all-time list. Rookie wideout Germie Bernard set a Steelers record in the win. For Tampa Bay, Jalon Daniels' day was a rough one, and the loss kept the Buccaneers without a home victory.

How our premium pick did

We sold the total, not the side. That call missed. The game finished at 45 points, well past the number we played under. The spread pick on Tampa Bay also lost. Our moneyline call on Pittsburgh was the one that hit, and it hit the way we framed it: a close game where the better quarterback and the steadier team found a way to win.

The reasoning behind the total wasn't wrong on paper — a rookie quarterback, a limited supporting cast, a run-heavy approach. But functional quarterback play was enough to beat a number in the high 30s, and that's what happened.

What it means going forward

When we lean on a total, the opponent's ability to stay competitive matters as much as the quarterback's efficiency. A team that keeps games close can turn a low-scoring script into a shootout in a hurry. We'll weigh that risk more heavily on low totals, and we'll keep trusting moneyline reads on the more complete team when the spread is thin.