Cincinnati Is 3-2, Last in the AFC North, and Stuck at a 39.1 Percent Red-Zone Rate

The Bengals spent Week 6 on the bye and spent it watching. What they saw Sunday was Cleveland grinding out a 13-10 win over Baltimore, a result that left the AFC North in a four-way knot — Browns, Steelers and Ravens all at 4-2, Cincinnati at 3-2 and sitting in last place with a winning record. That is the shape of this season in the division: three teams have played six games, the Bengals have played five, and nobody has separated.

Which is why the bye-week self-scout mattered more than the standings did. Cincinnati's own market position says the same thing. After the 31-24 win in Miami, the Bengals climbed to No. 8 in the neutral-field ratings at 3.0, a 2.1-point jump in a week, backed by a +3.8 point differential and a schedule that grades out at 0.831. The underlying profile is a good team. The red-zone profile is not.

Burrow Is Carrying a Lopsided Offense

Joe Burrow has been excellent through five games: 1,361 yards, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions, 71.4 percent completion and a 104.4 passer rating. Over his last three games that rating is 108.5 with a 6.5 percent touchdown rate and a 73.2 percent completion clip. He threw for 428 yards in the Jacksonville loss and 190 with four touchdowns and no picks against Miami.

The structure around him is the problem. Cincinnati throws for 272.2 yards per game and runs for 82.8 — a 3.6 yards-per-carry ground game that ranks near the bottom of the league, with Chase Brown at 3.5 a pop on 246 yards. The Bengals are throwing on roughly 60 percent of snaps because the alternative isn't viable.

Nowhere does that show up more than inside the twenty. Cincinnati's red-zone touchdown rate is 39.1 percent, fifth-worst in football ahead of only the Jets, Browns, Steelers and Commanders. On 50 red-zone snaps this season the Bengals have nine touchdowns — 26 pass plays producing seven scores at 4.15 yards per play, and 24 run plays producing two at 3.13. They are running the ball inside the twenty at nearly the same rate they throw it, and the runs are going nowhere. For a team with Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase (27 catches, 289 yards, four touchdowns) and Tee Higgins (27 catches, 423 yards) — both of whom have appeared in all five games despite getting banged up in Jacksonville — settling for field goals at this rate is the single clearest inefficiency on the roster.

The Defense Has Held Up Its End

The pleasant surprise of the bye-week reviews: this is not the sieve of recent years. Cincinnati allows 21.8 points per game and has generated 17 sacks, tied for the league lead in the cluster behind Detroit and Cleveland. Jonathan Allen has 3.0 sacks and five stuffs; Dexter Lawrence has 3.0 sacks, seven stuffs and six quarterback hits. Rush defense sits at 74.5 yards per game allowed, 15th in the league — average, but functional.

That changes the calculus. The Bengals don't need to outscore people 34-31 anymore. They need to convert short fields into sevens, because the defense is now good enough that finishing drives is the difference between 3-2 and 5-0.

Baltimore Next, and the Division Is Wide Open

Week 7 sends Cincinnati to M&T Bank Stadium, where the Ravens average 26.0 points and 151.5 rushing yards per game, second in the NFL, with Derrick Henry at 534 yards and seven touchdowns on 4.1 per carry. Lamar Jackson has missed two straight with an ankle injury and Tyler Huntley has started in his place; as of now, the Week 7 listing has Huntley at quarterback for Baltimore. Huntley has been efficient — 70.8 percent, three touchdowns, no interceptions, a 99.8 rating — but the passing game has topped out around 205 yards for three straight weeks.

The number opened at Baltimore -3.0 and has been bet to -2.5, so the market has already given up the key number in a game with a 50.5 total. Note that the Bengals' weekly injury report hasn't been released, so there's no availability read to make yet.

The larger point: with all four division teams carrying two losses, a bye week spent fixing the red zone was well timed. Cincinnati's next month includes Baltimore, Tennessee, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Convert a couple of those 39-percent trips into touchdowns and the last-place label disappears fast.