The Packers Are Winning With the NFL's Worst Run Game — Ford Field Is Where That Gets Tested

Green Bay is 4-2, riding a three-game winning streak, and coming off a 23-13 handling of Dallas at Lambeau. By record, the Packers look like a team that has figured something out. By profile, they look like a team living on a very narrow edge — one that Detroit is well-positioned to expose Sunday at Ford Field.

Start with the number that defines this season: 60.4 rushing yards per game. That's dead last in the NFL, and it isn't a small-sample fluke. Green Bay's last-10-window figure sits at 59.8, its last-five at 58.6. There is no version of this offense that runs the ball effectively. The backfield has been a committee of MarShawn Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks, and Josh Jacobs — still listed atop the depth chart — has appeared in just one game with zero carries. Green Bay throws on roughly 62 percent of its snaps because it has no alternative, not because it prefers to.

So Matt LaFleur stopped pretending. The Week 5 win over Chicago was the clearest sign yet that he's turned the offense over to Jordan Love, and Love has responded: 1,684 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, four interceptions through six games. Christian Watson has been a vertical problem for secondaries all year, Matthew Golden has emerged as a legitimate second option, and Tucker Kraft gives Love a middle-of-the-field answer. The passing game is the offense now. Against Dallas, that was enough.

But the supporting numbers are uneasy. Green Bay has committed 57 penalties, the most of any team in the league. The Packers have survived that because they've protected the ball — seven turnovers and a plus-4 margin — and because the defense has quietly stiffened. Over the last three games, Green Bay is allowing 11.3 points per contest, and the unit has produced a three-game cover streak while the offense sputtered in and out of rhythm. Surviving self-inflicted errors works until it doesn't, and the margin for that survival shrinks dramatically when the opponent can score.

Detroit can score. The Lions average 32.8 points per game, and they're doing it at 3-2 despite allowing 29.6 themselves. This is a game where both teams will expect to move the ball, which puts the burden directly on the Packers' one-dimensional offense to keep pace without the aid of a ground game to bleed clock and shorten the game.

The complication is up front on defense. Green Bay's interior line is a triage ward: Javon Hargrave (Achilles) and Jonathan Ford (calf) are out, Jordon Riley is doubtful, Anthony Campbell is questionable, and Devonte Wyatt has been limited. Add Benjamin St-Juste out at corner, Brandon Cisse questionable with a hip, and Keisean Nixon limited, and the back seven is thin against a Detroit offense with more firepower than anything Green Bay saw during this win streak. Micah Parsons' absence has hung over this defense all season, and it remains the single biggest reason the pass rush can't dictate terms late in games.

That's the tension heading into Week 7. The Packers have won three straight by leaning on Love's arm and a defense that has feasted on favorable matchups. Neither crutch is guaranteed in a dome against a division rival that scores 32 a game. If Detroit forces Love into a high-volume, high-variance afternoon — and the Lions' own defensive issues suggest he'll get chances — the question becomes whether Green Bay's offense can win a shootout without a single reliable chain-mover on the ground.

The 4-2 record is real. So is the last-place rushing offense, the league-leading penalty count, and the banged-up defensive front. One of those things is going to have to change for this streak to mean something in December. Ford Field is the first honest test of whether it can.