38.1%: The Red-Zone Number Sitting Behind Pittsburgh's Fragile 4-2 Start

The AFC North standings say the Steelers are fine. At 4-2, Pittsburgh is dead even with Cleveland and Baltimore atop the division, with a plus-1.5 point differential and a defense allowing 21.3 points per game. A 19-26 win in Tampa in Week 6 — capped by a Rodgers-to-Germie Bernard touchdown in the extra period — counts the same as any other.

But there is one number from this season that explains nearly everything uncomfortable about the Steelers, and it isn't the record.

Pittsburgh is converting 38.1 percent of its red-zone trips into touchdowns. That ranks 31st in the league, ahead of only Cleveland (35.3). New Orleans, this week's opponent, sits at 69.6 percent — second-best in football. The Steelers have moved the ball: 2,082 total yards, 5.7 yards per play, 22.8 points per game. They just haven't finished.

Field goals are covering for a stalled offense

The clearest symptom is Chris Boswell's workload. Pittsburgh has attempted 17 field goals in six games. Boswell has made 13, and the four misses are revealing: a 48-yarder wide left against the Browns, another 48-yarder wide left against the Bucs, plus misses from 56 (wide right vs. Atlanta) and 57 (wide left vs. New England). He has also drilled a 58-yarder and a 56-yarder, so the leg is fine — the volume is the story. He converted 84.4 percent last season on 32 attempts; at 76.5 percent now, he's being asked to bail out drives that die inside the 20.

Aaron Rodgers' line reflects the same problem from a different angle. He's completing 61.4 percent for 1,487 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions, an 88.0 passer rating, and 19 sacks taken at a 7.5 percent rate. A -5.7 completion percentage over expected and -27.6 passing EPA tell you this is a quick-game offense hiding pressure, not a downfield one.

The home/road split is stark. In three home games, Rodgers has 748 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and positive EPA. In three road games: 739 yards, five scores, four picks, a -7.3 CPOE and -32.5 passing EPA. Pittsburgh's two losses came at New England and Cleveland.

What's actually carrying this team

Jaylen Warren is the offense's engine — 460 rushing yards on 84 carries (5.5 per attempt) plus 21 catches for 258 more. The defense has been the steadier unit, and the Steelers sit plus-3 in turnover differential while turning it over only seven times.

The drive charts show where the wins come from: Pittsburgh has run 142 fourth-quarter plays for 565 yards and five touchdowns, versus 88 plays and 254 yards in the third quarter. These are comeback wins, not control wins.

The Week 7 setup in Paris

Pittsburgh heads to Stade de France to face a 2-4 Saints team allowing 29.7 points per game. The market has moved Pittsburgh from -1.5 to -3.0 on the spread with the total at 44.5, Rodgers against Tyler Shough.

The matchup offers a path. New Orleans has surrendered 701 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs, and 455 yards plus three scores to tight ends — which points directly at Warren and Pat Freiermuth.

The caveat: the Week 7 injury report isn't available yet, so the availability of DK Metcalf (30 catches, 318 yards) and Freiermuth can't be confirmed. Last week's reporting had Metcalf dealing with an illness and Freiermuth with a calf issue.

The broader point stands regardless of Sunday. Pittsburgh's underlying profile is thinner than 4-2 suggests — a 16th-ranked team with a -1.78 neutral-field rating that fell 1.54 points in a week. Until the red-zone number moves, the Steelers are winning on margins, and margins are the first thing to go.