Packers vs Lions Ends in 17-17 Tie: Our Picks Split

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions played to a 17-17 tie at Ford Field on Sunday, a result that left both teams and our premium picks with mixed outcomes. The defining storyline was the half-point: Detroit closed as a 3-point favorite, and a Packers loss by a field goal would have been a push — but the game never got there.

Our Premium Pick Grade

We sold subscribers on Green Bay +3.0 (or better) and the Under 53.5. The spread pick was a WIN — the Packers covered as a 3-point dog by tying the game. The total was also a WIN, as 34 combined points sailed under 53.5.

The moneyline on Green Bay was a PUSH — the game ended in a tie, so the ticket is refunded. We also noted that at +3.5 the Packers would have cashed a field-goal loss, but at +3.0 that same result is a push. The tie made that half-point moot, but it's a reminder of why line shopping matters.

Our model projected a 23-25 scoreline, and the actual 17-17 finish landed well short of that, which is why the Under cashed comfortably.

What This Means for Future Picks

The result reinforces two things: division games are often tighter and lower-scoring than the market expects, and the half-point around key numbers is worth chasing. We'll keep prioritizing value on the under and dogs in divisional matchups, and we'll continue to flag the difference between +3.0 and +3.5 — because in a game projected as close, that half-point is the whole story.