Dolphins Stun Jets 28-25 for First Win, Our Jets Pick Fails

The Miami Dolphins walked into MetLife Stadium winless and walked out with a 28-25 victory over the New York Jets, their first win of the 2026 season. Miami led 21-7 at halftime and held off a New York rally, handing the Jets a loss that will only intensify scrutiny on Aaron Glenn's team.

Our premium pick was the Jets. We sold New York as a desperate home team facing a broken opponent, with Geno Smith as the steady hand who wouldn't lose the game. That read was wrong.

The grades:

• Spread (NYJ): LOSS. The Jets never covered, and the final margin flattered them.
• Moneyline (NYJ): LOSS. New York lost outright as the home favorite.
• Total (Under): LOSS. The 53 combined points sailed past the number, driven by a 21-point Miami first half.

We leaned on Miami's 0-5 record and its league-worst scoring offense, assuming Malik Willis couldn't sustain drives. Instead, the Dolphins scored 21 before halftime and made the Jets chase the game. The historical edge we downplayed — Miami had won eight of the last ten meetings — showed up again.

What it means for future picks: Winless teams with bad stats are still dangerous when the opponent is also flawed. We overvalued New York's desperation and undervalued Miami's matchup history. Going forward, we'll weigh recent head-to-head results more heavily and be slower to trust a home favorite against a team that has simply had the Jets' number.