Bears Rout Seahawks 34-17: Our Monday Night Pick Misses

The Chicago Bears went into Lumen Field and blew out the Seattle Seahawks 34-17 on Monday night, turning a game the market expected to be close into a one-sided affair. Caleb Williams delivered late, Jeffery Simmons starred in his Bears debut, and Seattle's playoff picture took a hit. For us, it was a rough night: every premium call missed.

How our picks fared

We sold Seahawks -3 as the spread play, and it lost outright — Seattle didn't just fail to cover, it was beaten by 17. The moneyline on Seattle (-174) also went down. The Under 46.5 was our secondary lean, and that missed too, with 51 points scored. The model's projected 21-17 Seattle win (38 points) was nowhere close to the actual 34-17 result.

What went wrong

The warning signs were there: a 0.5047 confidence on the spread was essentially a coin flip, and we said as much. The model saw a close, low-scoring game, but Chicago's fast, productive offense controlled the night while Seattle's defense couldn't hold up. The turnover battle and Simmons' impact up front swung things early, and the Bears never let Seattle back in.

What it means going forward

When confidence sits near 50%, that's not an edge — it's a guess. We'll be more selective with picks that lack conviction, especially when the model's projected margin is thin. The total also reminded us that a low-scoring projection doesn't guarantee a low-scoring game; we'll weigh offensive pace more heavily. Monday night was a miss across the board, and we own it. On to the next slate.