Jaguars Hold No. 1 While the Board Shakes: Week 7 Power Rankings
The Lede
The top of the board didn't move this week — Jacksonville and Minnesota held at No. 1 and No. 2 — but the noise underneath them was loud. Cincinnati jumped 2.35 rating points to climb into the top three, Chicago surged 4.14 points, and Pittsburgh leapt 4.17. Meanwhile, Kansas City's rating cratered 3.87 points and Carolina dropped 5.82. The theme of Week 7: the model is catching up to teams the market has been slow to price, and it's punishing the ones living on reputation.
The Top Five
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (8.96, +0.45 wk, 4-2, SOS 1.21) — The Jags stay on top with a neutral-field rating of 8.96, up 0.45, and the market is still 6.22 points behind that number. That's a real buy signal: this rating implies they should be laying roughly nine in a neutral spot. The profile backs it up with a 5.2-point differential over the last five. Until the number catches up, Jacksonville is the best bet on the board.
2. Minnesota Vikings (6.25, +0.50 wk, 6-0, SOS -0.28) — The 6-0 record is backed by a plus-6.8 point differential over the last five despite a modest 0.10 EPA edge per play. The rating sits 5.11 points better than the market, so the books are still catching up to a team that keeps winning. Minnesota isn't flashy, but the numbers say the undefeated start is no fluke.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (5.33, +2.35 wk, 4-2, SOS 1.52) — The biggest mover in the top five, Cincinnati jumped 2.35 points on the strength of a plus-0.16 EPA differential per play and a 7.0 point differential over the last five. The 4-2 record and 26.0 points per game are legit, and the schedule (1.52 SOS) has been no picnic. The model is buying the Bengals in a big way.
4. New England Patriots (4.00, -1.46 wk, 4-3, SOS 2.57) — New England slid 1.46 points this week, and the underlying numbers explain why: a -0.0035 EPA differential per play and a defense allowing 25.4 points over the last five don't support a top-five ranking. With Carlton Davis out and Byard and Elliss questionable, the secondary is thin. I'm selling the Patriots at this price.
5. Seattle Seahawks (3.85, +1.43 wk, 4-3, SOS -0.99) — Seattle's rating jumped 1.43 this week, but that number already eats a 2.8-point injury dock for Charbonnet, Lock, and Drake Thomas, so the roster is thinner than the rank suggests. The underlying profile is shaky: a -0.0068 EPA diff per play and a -0.989 strength of schedule. The rank is nice; the number is fragile.
Risers and Fallers
The biggest rating jumps belong to Tampa Bay (+10.13), Washington (+7.08), and Pittsburgh (+4.17). The Bucs' surge is the head-scratcher: at 2-5, their -0.66 rating is still below average, but the model is buying the last five games (23.2 scored, 19.0 allowed, +0.106 EPA per play). Washington's 7.08-point jump comes with a -0.12 EPA per play and a -7.6 point differential over the last five — that's a market correction, not a endorsement. Pittsburgh's 4.17-point jump is the market catching up to a team whose prior-season rating of 0.25 had them priced as average.
On the flip side, Carolina (-5.82), Kansas City (-3.87), and San Francisco (-2.19) took the biggest rating hits. The Panthers' drop is the loudest signal in the file: the market still has them at -1.19 versus my number, so I'm selling the last-five scoring bump. Kansas City's 5-1 record is masking a -0.31 rating that's cratered 3.87 points — the market's -4.82 vs_market gap says this team is being priced well above what the numbers support. San Francisco's 6-1 record looks great, but the model docked 4.7 points for the absences of Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and Nicholas Bosa, and the rating is down 2.19.
How the Board Sets Up
Tampa Bay is the team to watch. A 10.13-point weekly jump is the kind of move that precedes a market correction. If the Bucs' last-five profile (23.2 scored, 19.0 allowed, +0.106 EPA) is real, they're a buy at current spreads. If it's noise, this is the sell-high window.
Atlanta sits at -0.91, up 1.0 this week, and 3.52 points better than the market. The Falcons are scoring 31.0 per game with a +7.2 point differential over the last five against a schedule 1.37 points tougher than average. At 3-4, they're a clear buy — the spread is lagging the rating.
Chicago jumped 4.14 points to 3.78, and the 4.93 vs-market gap says the books are still a step behind. The profile holds up: 23.6 points scored against 19.4 allowed over the last five with a positive 0.044 EPA per play. The Bears are a genuine riser, not a market overreaction.
Kansas City is the fade. The 5-1 record is doing a lot of misleading work for a team rated -0.31. The market is pricing them 4.82 points better than the number, and the rating is falling fast. Until the underlying metrics improve, I'm selling the Chiefs.
Sign-Off
The board is telling a clear story this week: the model is rewarding teams with real underlying form (Cincinnati, Chicago, Atlanta) and punishing the ones living on reputation (Kansas City, New England, San Francisco). Jacksonville and Minnesota are the class of the league, but the value is in the middle of the board. Trust the numbers, not the records. That's the Earl Knows Ball way.