3.2
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
Chicago sits at 15th with a -0.588 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast after a -0.814 drop from last week, and the 3.2-point injury dock for a questionable Caleb Williams plus Kyle Monangai already being out tells you the market hasn't fully caught up to how thin this roster is. The +2.23 vs-market mark means Chicago has been beating the number, but with a -0.041 strength of schedule and a modest 0.0219 EPA differential, that 3-2 record is propped up by close wins rather than real dominance. This is a sell-high spot: the rating says they're barely above average, so any spread pricing them as a legit contender is a fade.
Unavailable this week(-3.2 pts of rating)
- Caleb Williams · QB · Questionable-2.1
- Kyle Monangai · RB · Out-1.0
- Noah Sewell · LB · Questionable-0.1
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2023 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | #32 | 0-1 | -11.3 | -0.6 | -10.4 | — |
| 2023 | 2 | #31 | 0-2 | -11.8 | -0.3 | -9.0 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 3 | #32 | 0-3 | -14.8 | -0.3 | -5.0 | -3.0 |
| 2023 | 4 | #32 | 0-4 | -16.6 | -1.1 | -6.5 | -1.8 |
| 2023 | 5 | #30 | 1-4 | -11.8 | -1.5 | -1.5 | +4.8 |
| 2023 | 6 | #31 | 1-5 | -14.7 | -4.7 | -4.2 | -2.8 |
| 2023 | 7 | #30 | 2-5 | -15.6 | -8.8 | -4.5 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 8 | #32 | 2-6 | -15.6 | -8.1 | -4.5 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 9 | #29 | 2-7 | -11.5 | -6.2 | +0.8 | +4.1 |
| 2023 | 10 | #30 | 3-7 | -11.6 | -6.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 11 | #26 | 3-8 | -6.2 | -1.1 | +3.8 | +5.4 |
| 2023 | 12 | #22 | 4-8 | -5.2 | -1.5 | +5.1 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 13 | #21 | 4-8 | -4.1 | — | +6.2 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 14 | #18 | 5-8 | -3.6 | -1.6 | +6.3 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 15 | #18 | 5-9 | -3.1 | -2.3 | +6.6 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 16 | #16 | 6-9 | -2.3 | -2.2 | +7.7 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 17 | #10 | 7-9 | +0.5 | -1.3 | +9.2 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 18 | #13 | 7-10 | -1.7 | -2.7 | +6.4 | -2.2 |