3.2
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
Chicago sits at 15th with a -0.588 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast after a -0.814 drop from last week, and the 3.2-point injury dock for a questionable Caleb Williams plus Kyle Monangai already being out tells you the market hasn't fully caught up to how thin this roster is. The +2.23 vs-market mark means Chicago has been beating the number, but with a -0.041 strength of schedule and a modest 0.0219 EPA differential, that 3-2 record is propped up by close wins rather than real dominance. This is a sell-high spot: the rating says they're barely above average, so any spread pricing them as a legit contender is a fade.
Unavailable this week(-3.2 pts of rating)
- Caleb Williams · QB · Questionable-2.1
- Kyle Monangai · RB · Out-1.0
- Noah Sewell · LB · Questionable-0.1
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2024 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | #18 | 1-0 | -0.7 | -1.7 | -0.9 | — |
| 2024 | 2 | #17 | 1-1 | -1.4 | -1.1 | +2.8 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 3 | #21 | 1-2 | -4.3 | -1.4 | -2.3 | -2.9 |
| 2024 | 4 | #20 | 2-2 | -2.9 | -1.6 | -0.4 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 5 | #18 | 3-2 | -0.2 | -1.2 | +3.6 | +2.7 |
| 2024 | 6 | #13 | 4-2 | +0.7 | -2.5 | +5.6 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 7 | #10 | 4-2 | +2.9 | — | +8.3 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 8 | #11 | 4-3 | +1.7 | -1.7 | +8.6 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | #16 | 4-4 | -1.4 | -1.3 | +4.7 | -3.1 |
| 2024 | 10 | #21 | 4-5 | -4.6 | -1.2 | +0.5 | -3.2 |
| 2024 | 11 | #20 | 4-6 | -3.1 | -0.5 | +3.2 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 12 | #21 | 4-7 | -3.7 | -1.3 | +1.1 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | #14 | 4-8 | -0.2 | -0.3 | +5.1 | +3.5 |
| 2024 | 14 | #21 | 4-9 | -4.5 | -1.7 | -0.7 | -4.3 |
| 2024 | 15 | #21 | 4-10 | -6.0 | -1.9 | -1.3 | -1.5 |
| 2024 | 16 | #20 | 4-11 | -4.7 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 17 | #22 | 4-12 | -5.5 | -0.6 | +1.2 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 18 | #15 | 5-12 | -2.9 | -0.1 | +5.5 | +2.6 |