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Earl's NFL power ranking ยท Week 5, 2026
#5
rank
+4.1
rating (points, neutral field)
11-6
record (2023)
-1.0
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Kansas City sits at No. 5 with a 4.136 neutral-field rating, but that number dropped 0.887 from last week and the market is pricing them about a point better than my model (-0.98 vs. market), so I'm selling KC at current spreads. The 4-0 record is buoyed by a soft schedule (-2.597) and a prior-season rating of -2.919, yet the underlying numbers are legit: 29.5 points per game and a +0.2305 EPA differential over the last five. With zero injury points docked, this is a healthy roster whose rating still trails the elite tier, so lay off the inflated lines.
Rating over the 2023 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | ฮ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | #4 | 0-1 | +5.8 | -0.6 | +3.9 | โ |
| 2023 | 2 | #4 | 1-1 | +5.0 | -1.4 | -1.8 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 3 | #7 | 2-1 | +5.2 | -2.4 | -6.0 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 4 | #4 | 3-1 | +6.7 | -1.2 | -5.2 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 5 | #3 | 4-1 | +8.6 | -0.2 | -3.1 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 6 | #4 | 5-1 | +6.3 | -0.8 | -5.2 | -2.2 |
| 2023 | 7 | #3 | 6-1 | +7.4 | -1.1 | -3.4 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 8 | #5 | 6-2 | +4.2 | -0.7 | -5.0 | -3.3 |
| 2023 | 9 | #5 | 7-2 | +5.1 | -0.6 | -4.5 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 10 | #4 | 7-2 | +6.0 | โ | -2.9 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 11 | #4 | 7-3 | +4.9 | -0.0 | -3.7 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 12 | #4 | 8-3 | +5.2 | -1.6 | -3.9 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 13 | #5 | 8-4 | +4.5 | -0.5 | -5.3 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 14 | #11 | 8-5 | +1.2 | -3.2 | -7.4 | -3.2 |
| 2023 | 15 | #7 | 9-5 | +3.0 | -1.6 | -6.1 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 16 | #9 | 9-6 | +1.9 | -1.3 | -7.0 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 17 | #8 | 10-6 | +1.1 | -2.0 | -7.0 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 18 | #23 | 11-6 | -7.1 | -9.9 | -12.5 | -8.1 |