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Earl's NFL power ranking ยท Week 5, 2026
#5
rank
+4.1
rating (points, neutral field)
15-2
record (2024)
-1.0
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Kansas City sits at No. 5 with a 4.136 neutral-field rating, but that number dropped 0.887 from last week and the market is pricing them about a point better than my model (-0.98 vs. market), so I'm selling KC at current spreads. The 4-0 record is buoyed by a soft schedule (-2.597) and a prior-season rating of -2.919, yet the underlying numbers are legit: 29.5 points per game and a +0.2305 EPA differential over the last five. With zero injury points docked, this is a healthy roster whose rating still trails the elite tier, so lay off the inflated lines.
Rating over the 2024 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | ฮ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | #8 | 1-0 | +2.8 | -2.0 | +3.7 | โ |
| 2024 | 2 | #6 | 2-0 | +3.5 | -1.0 | -2.6 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | #8 | 3-0 | +3.4 | โ | -5.1 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 4 | #4 | 4-0 | +5.4 | -0.5 | -5.8 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 5 | #1 | 5-0 | +8.1 | -0.4 | -3.2 | +2.7 |
| 2024 | 6 | #3 | 5-0 | +8.2 | โ | -3.3 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 7 | #3 | 6-0 | +7.7 | -0.6 | -3.5 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 8 | #3 | 7-0 | +5.8 | -0.9 | -5.2 | -1.9 |
| 2024 | 9 | #5 | 8-0 | +6.0 | -1.3 | -5.2 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 10 | #6 | 9-0 | +5.4 | -0.8 | -4.3 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 11 | #9 | 9-1 | +4.3 | -1.1 | -5.0 | -1.1 |
| 2024 | 12 | #8 | 10-1 | +2.5 | -1.1 | -5.7 | -1.8 |
| 2024 | 13 | #10 | 11-1 | +1.9 | -0.2 | -6.1 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 14 | #9 | 12-1 | +2.4 | -0.2 | -5.2 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 15 | #10 | 13-1 | +1.2 | -2.1 | -6.4 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 16 | #8 | 14-1 | +2.5 | -1.3 | -4.5 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 17 | #5 | 15-1 | +5.4 | -1.2 | -1.5 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 18 | #24 | 15-2 | -8.1 | -10.7 | -11.3 | -13.5 |