2.1
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
#21
rank
-5.9
rating (points, neutral field)
8-9
record (2023)
+3.1
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Las Vegas sits at 21st with a -5.94 neutral-field rating, but the market has been pricing them 3.12 points better than that, so the books clearly aren't buying this number as a true reflection of the roster. The problem is the trajectory: a -5.26 rating drop in one week is massive, and the underlying profile is shaky with a -0.015 EPA differential and 25.8 points allowed over the last five despite a 3-2 record. With Jalen Nailor and Dont'e Thornton out and Ashton Jeanty questionable, I'm selling the Raiders at any spread that assumes they're a near-average team.
Unavailable this week(-2.1 pts of rating)
- Jalen Nailor · WR · Out-0.8
- Ashton Jeanty · RB · Questionable-0.8
- Dont'e Thornton · WR · Out-0.5
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2023 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | #23 | 1-0 | -2.8 | -1.0 | +0.3 | — |
| 2023 | 2 | #28 | 1-1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | +0.2 | -4.4 |
| 2023 | 3 | #25 | 1-2 | -6.6 | -0.2 | -1.4 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 4 | #29 | 1-3 | -9.8 | -3.2 | -4.0 | -3.2 |
| 2023 | 5 | #27 | 2-3 | -7.8 | -2.3 | -2.9 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 6 | #25 | 3-3 | -7.3 | -1.3 | -3.1 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 7 | #32 | 3-4 | -17.6 | -8.7 | -13.8 | -10.3 |
| 2023 | 8 | #29 | 3-5 | -9.9 | -1.3 | -4.8 | +7.7 |
| 2023 | 9 | #24 | 4-5 | -6.3 | -1.4 | -0.6 | +3.5 |
| 2023 | 10 | #26 | 5-5 | -6.9 | -2.1 | -0.4 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 11 | #24 | 5-6 | -4.5 | -0.3 | +2.6 | +2.5 |
| 2023 | 12 | #23 | 5-7 | -5.6 | -1.2 | +2.8 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 13 | #22 | 5-7 | -4.6 | — | +3.6 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 14 | #19 | 5-8 | -4.6 | -0.5 | +4.9 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 15 | #14 | 6-8 | -1.8 | -2.5 | +6.4 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 16 | #10 | 7-8 | -0.1 | -2.5 | +8.6 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 17 | #13 | 7-9 | -1.0 | -2.4 | +7.7 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 18 | #11 | 8-9 | -0.9 | -3.1 | +6.6 | +0.1 |