2.1
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
#21
rank
-5.9
rating (points, neutral field)
4-13
record (2024)
+3.1
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Las Vegas sits at 21st with a -5.94 neutral-field rating, but the market has been pricing them 3.12 points better than that, so the books clearly aren't buying this number as a true reflection of the roster. The problem is the trajectory: a -5.26 rating drop in one week is massive, and the underlying profile is shaky with a -0.015 EPA differential and 25.8 points allowed over the last five despite a 3-2 record. With Jalen Nailor and Dont'e Thornton out and Ashton Jeanty questionable, I'm selling the Raiders at any spread that assumes they're a near-average team.
Unavailable this week(-2.1 pts of rating)
- Jalen Nailor · WR · Out-0.8
- Ashton Jeanty · RB · Questionable-0.8
- Dont'e Thornton · WR · Out-0.5
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2024 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | #15 | 0-1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | +0.4 | — |
| 2024 | 2 | #11 | 1-1 | +1.4 | -0.4 | +8.4 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 3 | #23 | 1-2 | -5.2 | -0.8 | -1.9 | -6.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | #28 | 2-2 | -7.2 | -3.4 | -0.4 | -1.9 |
| 2024 | 5 | #29 | 2-3 | -10.5 | -4.3 | -1.8 | -3.4 |
| 2024 | 6 | #27 | 2-4 | -11.3 | -2.9 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 7 | #28 | 2-5 | -10.6 | -3.1 | +3.1 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 8 | #25 | 2-6 | -6.7 | -0.7 | +7.1 | +4.0 |
| 2024 | 9 | #26 | 2-7 | -8.9 | -1.4 | +2.6 | -2.2 |
| 2024 | 10 | #26 | 2-7 | -7.8 | — | +2.3 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 11 | #29 | 2-8 | -9.9 | -1.0 | +2.2 | -2.1 |
| 2024 | 12 | #31 | 2-9 | -11.9 | -3.0 | +0.1 | -1.9 |
| 2024 | 13 | #31 | 2-10 | -13.5 | -6.1 | -1.3 | -1.6 |
| 2024 | 14 | #30 | 2-11 | -10.1 | -2.6 | +0.8 | +3.4 |
| 2024 | 15 | #30 | 2-12 | -10.6 | -2.9 | +1.8 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 16 | #24 | 3-12 | -7.1 | -0.3 | +4.8 | +3.5 |
| 2024 | 17 | #20 | 4-12 | -3.9 | -0.1 | +7.8 | +3.2 |
| 2024 | 18 | #20 | 4-13 | -6.2 | -1.4 | +7.7 | -2.2 |