2.1
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
#21
rank
-5.9
rating (points, neutral field)
3-14
record (2025)
+3.1
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Las Vegas sits at 21st with a -5.94 neutral-field rating, but the market has been pricing them 3.12 points better than that, so the books clearly aren't buying this number as a true reflection of the roster. The problem is the trajectory: a -5.26 rating drop in one week is massive, and the underlying profile is shaky with a -0.015 EPA differential and 25.8 points allowed over the last five despite a 3-2 record. With Jalen Nailor and Dont'e Thornton out and Ashton Jeanty questionable, I'm selling the Raiders at any spread that assumes they're a near-average team.
Unavailable this week(-2.1 pts of rating)
- Jalen Nailor · WR · Out-0.8
- Ashton Jeanty · RB · Questionable-0.8
- Dont'e Thornton · WR · Out-0.5
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2025 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | #2 | 1-0 | +1.2 | — | +2.3 | — |
| 2025 | 2 | #19 | 1-1 | -1.2 | -0.4 | +3.4 | -2.4 |
| 2025 | 3 | #20 | 1-2 | -3.7 | -0.3 | +1.3 | -2.5 |
| 2025 | 4 | #21 | 1-3 | -4.0 | -0.3 | +0.5 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 5 | #27 | 1-4 | -7.9 | -0.8 | -1.2 | -4.0 |
| 2025 | 6 | #27 | 2-4 | -7.2 | -1.2 | -1.9 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 7 | #31 | 2-5 | -10.6 | -1.5 | -3.1 | -3.4 |
| 2025 | 8 | #25 | 2-5 | -8.7 | — | +0.5 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 9 | #32 | 2-6 | -14.6 | -5.6 | -6.5 | -5.9 |
| 2025 | 10 | #31 | 2-7 | -12.8 | -6.0 | -4.7 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 11 | #30 | 2-8 | -14.3 | -5.6 | -3.8 | -1.4 |
| 2025 | 12 | #28 | 2-9 | -10.3 | — | -1.6 | +3.9 |
| 2025 | 13 | #30 | 2-10 | -12.3 | -1.1 | -3.6 | -2.0 |
| 2025 | 14 | #30 | 2-11 | -13.3 | -2.3 | -3.4 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 15 | #31 | 2-12 | -20.0 | -7.4 | -7.6 | -6.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | #29 | 2-13 | -10.3 | — | +2.7 | +9.7 |
| 2025 | 17 | #30 | 2-14 | -14.0 | -1.4 | +0.2 | -3.7 |
| 2025 | 18 | #31 | 3-14 | -18.9 | -7.7 | -4.5 | -4.9 |