8.3
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
#28
rank
-10.1
rating (points, neutral field)
9-8
record (2023)
-3.7
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Tampa Bay sits at 28th with a neutral-field rating of -10.1, meaning they'd be roughly a 10-point underdog to an average team, and their -3.67 vs-market gap says the books have been pricing them even worse than that. The 2.66-point rating jump is real progress, but with Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield, and Benjamin Morrison all out and 8.3 points already docked for those absences, this is a roster held together with tape at 1-4. I'd treat any short line as a sell until the injury situation clears, because a -0.02 EPA differential and 20 points per game over the last five won't cover spreads on their own.
Unavailable this week(-8.3 pts of rating)
- Baker Mayfield · QB · Out-7.0
- Antoine Winfield · S · Out-0.7
- Benjamin Morrison · CB · Out-0.5
- SirVocea Dennis · LB · Out-0.1
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2023 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | #24 | 1-0 | -2.9 | — | +1.5 | — |
| 2023 | 2 | #25 | 2-0 | -4.5 | -2.2 | -1.3 | -1.6 |
| 2023 | 3 | #24 | 2-1 | -6.4 | -2.1 | +1.3 | -2.0 |
| 2023 | 4 | #15 | 3-1 | -2.4 | -1.4 | +3.7 | +4.0 |
| 2023 | 5 | #13 | 3-1 | +1.3 | — | +7.2 | +3.8 |
| 2023 | 6 | #17 | 3-2 | -1.8 | -0.8 | +4.8 | -3.1 |
| 2023 | 7 | #22 | 3-3 | -4.4 | -1.8 | +1.3 | -2.6 |
| 2023 | 8 | #20 | 3-4 | -4.8 | -3.2 | +1.1 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 9 | #20 | 3-5 | -3.3 | -2.6 | +2.8 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 10 | #15 | 4-5 | -1.9 | -2.6 | +3.5 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 11 | #16 | 4-6 | -1.9 | -2.6 | +3.9 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 12 | #20 | 4-7 | -3.6 | -3.1 | +3.1 | -1.7 |
| 2023 | 13 | #25 | 5-7 | -5.0 | -3.7 | +1.4 | -1.4 |
| 2023 | 14 | #17 | 6-7 | -3.5 | -2.0 | +3.1 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 15 | #13 | 7-7 | -1.6 | -3.1 | +5.7 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 16 | #8 | 8-7 | +2.1 | -0.8 | +9.7 | +3.7 |
| 2023 | 17 | #11 | 8-8 | +0.0 | -1.4 | +6.6 | -2.1 |
| 2023 | 18 | #12 | 9-8 | -1.3 | -2.8 | +4.4 | -1.3 |